No more new petrol/diesel cars by 2040?

[Ekona]

We won't be driving then anyway, it'll all be autonomous pods not cars. Both together are the future for those living in urban areas, not one or the other.

 

And at that point you can just shoot me dead if that's all that's available. 

[Jay84]

But at least they were paying tax on the fuel used, unlike full electrics

[Jay84]

Just now, Ekona said:

We won't be driving then anyway, it'll all be autonomous pods not cars. Both together are the future for those living in urban areas, not one or the other.

 

And at that point you can just shoot me dead if that's all that's available. 

I fear Dan is right, by that point I think public transport would have changed drastically negating the need for personal transport. Look at the expanding Tram system of Nottingham, as other towns adopt something similar, the counties and the country gets smaller. If i can commute for less than the cost of a car, why wouldn't I? 

I love driving, I really do, and I really hate people, so being on a train is difficult for me, but cars are old hat, petrol, diesel or EV. 

[Ekona]

People won't own cars, they'll just borrow pods Boris-bike style. Driving will only be allowed on certain roads between 1000 and 1130 every other Tuesday.

[Stutopia]

19 minutes ago, Ekona said:

We won't be driving then anyway, it'll all be autonomous pods not cars. Both together are the future for those living in urban areas, not one or the other.

 

And at that point you can just shoot me dead if that's all that's available. 

 

And still I don't have either a ******* jet pack or hoverboard.

[gangzoom]

39 minutes ago, Ekona said:

And at that point you can just shoot me dead if that's all that's available. 

 

I've already mentioned it shouldn't come to that....Plenty of help groups will be around to help you cope, have a chat with a group of similar minded people, share your thoughts whilst having organic coffee brewed with water purified from the toilet, all taking place in a tree house furnished using nothing but fully organic furniture ;).

[veeg33]

50 minutes ago, gangzoom said:

 

1: Charging points for people without off road parking is an issue, but people are actively trying to come up with solution. Lamp post can now be converted to charging points for a cost that is apparently 4 digits and falling. But as battery range improves that becomes less of an issue - I charge my Tesla less than twice a week, yet I've still covered 6K miles in 4 months with no range anxiety at all.

 

https://www.zap-map.com/london-street-lights-converted-to-ev-charge-points-for-trial/

 

2: Power generation needs to change, and demand 'managed', battery storage tech is essential in this regard. Also remember it is unlikely 30 million cars will all charge at the same time, especially as range improves. Would you go and refuel your current car if you had 150 miles in the tank?.....Can you remember what happened to petrol stations at the last haulage strike and everyone tried to fill up at the same time??

 

3: Tesla actually demoed this and rolled out two battery swap stations in LA a few years ago. The problem is no one used them.....The reason been why would you go out of your way to get a 'battery swap' when you can simply plug in at home after work and be greeted by a fully charged charge the next day. Time wise it makes no sense to go for battery swapping unless your doing a 300 miles+ trip. Equally as rapid chargers are now been touted to be approach 300KW, that's potentially 200 miles of range (3 hrs of driving) added about 15 minutes - which is probably how long a toilet brake takes. Yes some people do actually need to drive 500 miles a day non-stop every day, but those people are rare, the average UK motorist does 8000 miles a year, that's 50 miles a day max if you only drove at weekdays.

 

As you say the fact all this tech is happening right now is pretty exciting :).

 

(1) - More charging stations will be needed, no doubt. You'll never know when you need it, but it has to be there when you need it. Just like petrol station. For example in the highlands, even with petrol/diesel can, you'll need to plan your journey well to avoid running out of juice.

 

(2) - Definitely not all 30 millions cars will charge at the same time hence assuming 20% (6 millions) or maybe 10% (3 millions). And I'm assuming everyone will only charge at night? However, i think it might be ok at night since power consumption at night after 12midnight will be minimum anyway.

 

(3) - Yeah, only long distance driver will need to use this service. Sales person comes in mind or delivery companies.

 

Will be interesting to see how things change heading to 2040. It will be challenging for engine manufacturers. Do they go with the trend, or just put up their feet......Experts in engines won't necessary be experts in electric motors or battery.

[Jay84]

47 minutes ago, Ekona said:

We won't be driving then anyway, it'll all be autonomous pods not cars. Both together are the future for those living in urban areas, not one or the other.

 

And at that point you can just shoot me dead if that's all that's available. 

Just think, we'll be the equivalent of the old boys with a 1940's relic slowing up the roads...or an old school steam roller/traction engine

[coldel]

With population growth going unabated, as Dan said the idea that status quo in terms of transport will still exist in 25+ years but with electric engines instead of petrol is hard to believe. I can imagine a move to one car ownership, even then will be highly expensive, wider transport networks, the charge to drive in major towns and cities enforced across the country (don't kid yourself that this is a clean air charge as they call it right now) and so on and so forth.

 

As I see it the development of this tech in itself is exciting utilising more renewable energy and driving down the cost, that said the experience of driving is right here and right now and we are all so super lucky to be catching the tail end of it where you can hear, feel and experience a car making amazing sounds and be able to tinker with every part of it just by lifting the hood and getting a socket set out - in 2040 we will be surrounded by silent linear transportation modes. For me anyway, now is the super exciting time make the most of it  and if you want to ensure a comfortable retirement stick an R34 GTR in the garage and cover her up for 25 years 

[JetSet]

No mention of HGV's then? From what I've read the best a 40 ton all electric HGV can currently manage is around 60 miles and a 26 ton HGV around 100 miles. Now then, I live fairly close to the main trunk route to Ireland (A55) and many of the HGV's I see are from places as far away as Bulgaria, Romania and Poland and many, many more from Continental Europe. As we all know, HGV's are a major source of pollution, but on exiting The E.U we will pretty well have no influence on these countries to switch totally to all electric. Of course, we can refuse to allow non electric vehicles into The U.K and build massive rail terminals at our major ports but quite frankly we just don't have anywhere near the rail infrastructure in the rest of the country to cope. 

Sure, there be a period when petrol and diesel will be readily available but keeping in mind how quickly leaded petrol vanished I would expect maybe 10 years max before fossil fuels will be (A) Hard to get hold of and (B) Bloody expensive.

As others have alluded to, there'll be a cost to all of this, anyone continuing to run old vehicles past 2040 will be priced/taxed off the road and new vehicles will have all sorts of taxes inflicted upon them.

 

Pete 

[Zeezeebaba]

Barring an accident in 2040 I will be near enough dead anyway so they can do what they like.

I applaud the innovation but the prospect of automous electric cars ignites zero passion in me. 

EVs bore the living s***e out of me, oooo look how quickly I can accelerate in my two ton automatic fridge on wheels!

I'm sorry but any petrol head worth their salt will miss the noise of an ICE and stirring a manual box.

Driving will become like a kids fairground attraction, fun but ultimately monotone blandness. 

Well I'm going to enjoy my cars for as long as possible sod the lefty greens.

 

[gsexr]

I`ve worked a fair bit with re-newable`s in the heating industry and we had a range of air source heat pumps from Austria.

One of the settings within the controls was to program for an off period of electricity.

This was for use in countries where the electricity goes off at certain times throughout the day/night to stop the unit from expecting to turn on and not be able to which would evoke a fault code.

Just thinking that they could organise charging points to work at certain times to spread the load around the grid and at different times to ease the burden on the supply.

[glrnet]

And I thought this was a forum for Petrol Heads ?

[Zeezeebaba]

Ok, I'm sour about losing my one and only hobby in the future however that doesn't mean I'm anti progress. I follow with great interest the progress of renewable energy sources and will champion any innovation as it arises.

The possibilities are endless and that element does excite me.

From recycling to multi function solar road plates and street furnishings we live in exciting times.

The downside as stated is revenue sources for governments and how they implement charging for energy in the future. If the cost of producing energy comes down its all good but alas someone will make money somewhere along the line and reverse that trend. As usual we will be out of pocket but if it helps prolong our time on this rock then at least I can die happy knowing my children's children will have a cleaner more sustainable future. 

In the meantime and in light of my impending career change a new hobby must be found

[Kev]

Saudi will make sure the world never stops consuming oil. £1.7 trillion buys a lot of influence. 

 

Cars will be hybrid with tiny engines and petrol will cost more than champagne. 

 

If someone designed a car that run on fresh air and water, they would be thanked with a bullet to the head. 

 

Oil and arms aren't going anywhere soon. 

Edited July 26, 2017 by Kev

[Flashback]

3 hours ago, glrnet said:

And I thought this was a forum for Petrol Heads ?

Well if we swap all the others on to EV think how much extra petrol we'll have for driving, burnouts and drifting purposes.... 

[JetSet]

3 hours ago, Kev said:

Saudi will make sure the world never stops consuming oil. £1.7 trillion buys a lot of influence.  

 

Crude oil can be blended in a way that can reduce the amount of gasoline/diesel produced and increase for example the amount of aviation fuel.  You can do a lot more with crude oil than you would imagine such as producing solvents ,chemicals, waxes, etc so there's no need for The Saudi's or any of the OPEC countries to get concerned at all.

 

Pete

[Kev]

6 minutes ago, JetSet said:

 

Crude oil can be blended in a way that can reduce the amount of gasoline/diesel produced and increase for example the amount of aviation fuel.  You can do a lot more with crude oil than you would imagine such as producing solvents ,chemicals, waxes, etc so there's no need for The Saudi's or any of the OPEC countries to get concerned at all.

 

Pete

I don't doubt that. 

 

But the common car has to be the main consumer. It won't be long before they target aviation too. 

 

This whole green thing is a tax scam. All those people just died in London because apparently wrapping buildings in polystyrene is the green thing to do. It's just creates a unhealthy living space and a obvious fire risk. But..the company who installed it were paid £3m of tax payers money. And no doubt someone in the council got a healthy kick back. 

 

Im no trump fan...but he was right to say "f you" to the Paris agreement. Global warming is a problem that needs to be addressed. Taxing the @*!# out of people isn't the answer. 

 

How much pollution is created building these electric cars and batteries?

 

Funny how only people in the west have to pay these "Eco" taxes too. It's just a scam. 

[JetSet]

13 hours ago, Kev said:

I don't doubt that. 

 

But the common car has to be the main consumer. It won't be long before they target aviation too. 

 

Yes, 65% of a refinery's production is either gasoline or diesel. This is something that is actually rather alarming. Currently there are 5 major oil refineries spread across The U.K plus a couple of smaller ones. Now then, once demand for gasoline starts to diminish how many refineries will we need to supply The U.K?  Probably just one, two at most. While its possible to adjust the crude oil blend to make other things, chemicals, lube oil or even aviation fuel it's no good making the stuff if you can't sell it or even store it.  So I can see most of the refineries just closing down and us having to import things like heavy fuel oil, bitumen, lube oils, etc. If as expected the rest of Europe goes all electric then they will be in exactly the same boat as us, overcapacity for gasoline/diesel and refineries right across the Continent closing down and just look at what happened to Octel when we went lead free in the 80's.

Then there's the question do we have the capacity in our power network to support the extra power needed to charge all of these electric cars up? Well, estimates say we could need as much as 8 GigaWatts more and to put that into perspective , the new Hinckley Point reactor when completed will supply just 3.2 GigaWatts so we need possibly as many as 5 new nuclear reactors to replace the old coal and oil fired power stations that will be closing down in the next few years. I just hope that the government have thought this through properly and have plans already in place.

The only good thing is that crude oil stocks will last a lot longer as demand will drop like a stone as more and more countries go all electric later this century.

 

Pete   

[modo]

Its a smoke screen, some OTHER MORE IMPORTANT NEWS IS OUT THERE, But being overshadowed by this pile of cow dung.

[Jetpilot]

Keep hold of those nasty V6 things and you can bet your bottom dollar you could sell it to fund any of that electric stuff come 2040.