Brexit 23rd June..?

[Jetpilot]

And leaving the EU "might" not be

[rtbiscuit]

neither side has the answers, both are guessing the outcome, even the "Bremain" camp is guesswork, yes there are some constants that currently exist that mean you "could" base decisions on them. but the likelihood is the status quo will dramatically change if we agree to stay. nothing we have agreed with the EU is legally binding and can be over ruled or changed, and as we no longer have a veto therie is little we can do to argue the toss.

 

at which point all bets are off as to what the financial and end outcome will be.

 

any data used to argue the case is speculative and usually wrong; take the tax windfall we were supposed to have and the extra money the government said they would have, then all of a sudden...oops sorry got the numbers wrong we don't have the cash.

 

politicians can't paint an accurate picture even if they were asked to draw a stickman with a crayon.

[coldel]

I know, its hard to really delve into fact as its hidden behind so much political rhetoric. Having read both sites, both are going for the scare tactics approach as that clearly worked to a better degree in the Scottish referendum so its going to be even worse this time.

 

How would anyone realistically know the outcome and alleviate your concerns without entering into negotiations about how we go forward, trade, etc etc and we are not going to enter negotiations due to the costs and time that may just not be worth it if the vote is to stay.

 

Its a lot like a divorce really, if someone said, i want to know if i will be better off divorcing my wife and how much will it cost me, no one would be able to give you the answer, you will only know once you have done it.

 

Its a fair comment, the detail they have gone to is that they will 'take control' which is the strap-line via Free Trade agreements but that's already at odds with any precedent set before it for countries like Norway or Switzerland. My question is, why will we be able to achieve both, is it based on the strength of our Financial sector? Will we take a hit on tariffs to ensure more 'control', what levers are being pulled to make this work.

 

I guess thats the issue though, that for the majority of Joe Public just tossing out there that we are taking control of everything without anything to substantiate it is enough for many vote Leave people - why should they bother to post up anything to satisfy the minority of the UK that want to know what the actual plan is?

Edited April 27, 2016 by coldel

[BobbyZ]

I'm pretty sure I'll vote to leave. I think a shake up is a good thing once in a while

Not being funny, and I've tried to phrase this in as nice a way as possible, but you do realise just how important this vote is? This isn't just a shake up, this is a once in a lifetime chance to shape the future of the country. Voting for anything just because you fancy a change is possibly the single worst reason to vote I can think of. By all means vote out if you think it will improve the country, but don't do it because you're bored!

 

Not directly related to that, and more a general question to the Brexiters: Are you prepared for the short-term pain that voting out will very likely cause? I mean in terms of the massive costs needed to negotiate the exit itself, in terms of watching the pound plummet and the effect that will have on savings and tax rates needed to sustain the UK, that sort of thing. I can absolutely see taxes needing to rise significantly to pay for the expenditure needed to leave, possibly the standard rate and almost certainly fuel & alcohol duty.

 

1) Word it however you want - I'm big enough and ugly enough not to get upset by forum opinions.

2) Good work partially quoting my post to make it sound as flippant as possible.

3) Yes I understand how important it is. You might be concerned to learn then, that rather than being given sensible options from campaigns on both sides of the argument, we're actually getting rhetoric and petty squabbling along with a healthy dose of rank speculation, so really no one knows what the best option is. What this means is that while you might find it ridiculous that I would vote out just to see what happens, it's probably as good a reason as anyone else's.

I do believe though that we'll be able to negotiate good deals regarding trade with the EU (no reason why we shouldn't be able to), and I also find it very easy to imagine the EU being in a worse state in 10 years' time or so than it is now - QE and bailing out of debt-ridden member states can only get you so far, and I don't think we'll get a chance to change our minds for a very long time if we vote 'in' this time.

[Kev T]

With 5 more 'poor 'countries lining up to join the EU and the potential of 77 million turks pouring through the borders probably heading here particularly with an ever higher minimum wage to attract them, it is almost certainly going to end in tears in the years to come.

[gsexr]

People think opting out will mean that we get charged Tariffs for trade deals..... What do you think the money is that we pay the EU now

[rtbiscuit]

we'll pay more if we stay and we'll pay more if we go both as a tax payer and as a country

 

there was already talk of our EU payments increasing and all EU countries will have to increase payments when the next wave of countries join.

[rtbiscuit]

This article on the the TTIP deal is very interesting reading

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ttip-leaks-shocking-what-are-they-eu-us-deal-a7010121.html

 

is this the kind of Europe we want to join?

[Stutopia]

This article on the the TTIP deal is very interesting reading

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ttip-leaks-shocking-what-are-they-eu-us-deal-a7010121.html

 

is this the kind of Europe we want to join?

 

This is a genuine question.

 

Do you think a UK - US trade deal negotiated by the Tories, known for their love of privatisation and deregulation of markets, would genuinely secure a more favourable deal for the UK, as an individual nation, than as part of the EU block?

[grahamc]

This article on the the TTIP deal is very interesting reading

 

http://www.independe...l-a7010121.html

 

is this the kind of Europe we want to join?

 

This is a genuine question.

 

Do you think a UK - US trade deal negotiated by the Tories, known for their love of privatisation and deregulation of markets, would genuinely secure a more favourable deal for the UK, as an individual nation, than as part of the EU block?

 

Its a good question and one I cant answer..... the TTIP deal was just scary, but as you say would the deal have been better or worse if the UK tried to negotiate by itself?

[rtbiscuit]

In all honesty i couldn't say,

 

but anything that has a 30 year secrecy clause on it has to be dodgy.

 

We don't have a trade agreement with the US now, would we be any worse off if we didn't bother? keep the status quo as it is?

 

I'm not sure the tories would sign over legal powers that give american corporations the upper hand. They are pro privatization, but they are also pro themselves and if they are linked with big business are they likely to screw themselves or their mates over?

[Stutopia]

Fair enough, I'm with you on 30 yr secrecy BS. Totally stinks.

[rtbiscuit]

The way the whole thing is being sold i'm not really sure either way; its like deciding between a kick to the nuts by one person or a kick to the shins by another. both are going to hurt, its just choosing whats going to hurt less and who you'd rather have do it to you.

 

I don't for a minute think our government have a clue how to do it properly, but i think i'm less convinced by the eurocrats who are all unelected.

[Sargara]

At least the government live here and are judged here by the electorate, they want to be re-elected afterall. The same cant be said for some TTIP Eurocrat who lives in Brussels and doesnt care about Estonias economy for example.

Edited May 4, 2016 by Sargara

[Jetpilot]

negotiated by the Tories

 

Personally i think it would make absolutely zero difference which party negotiated the deal, irrespective of where your vote goes, to think any other party would do a better job is some what naive imho.

Edited May 4, 2016 by Jetpilot

[docwra]

We would probably still have to sign up to TTIP if we left the EU anyway. Bad thing, but not really relevant.

[Jetpilot]

We would probably still have to sign up to TTIP if we left the EU anyway. Bad thing, but not really relevant.

 

I am guessing we would at least have the power to negotiate better terms, whether we could or would is another story

[Ekona]

Why would we have more power to negotiate the terms? One country vs many countries. Even the special relationship ain't helping that one.

 

Doc's right, it'll be the same thing regardless. Why spend millions more arguing the same points again? Might as well just sign up and save the hassle.

[Jetpilot]

If they want us in, we may be able to get different terms, just like Dave has recently demanded of membership to europe.

[docwra]

If they want us in, we may be able to get different terms, just like Dave has recently demanded of membership to europe.

 

If "they" are the EU then they dont have any power to change it, its a US drafted agreement.

 

If "they" are the USA Obama has already made it clear that we wouldnt get special treatment as regards writing trade policies, never mind revising the TTIP

[Jetpilot]

I struggle to believe any politician, us, uk or europe and who knows what the next US president will want and who it will be, as i said, whether we "could" or "would" is another story, but i dont think you can 100% rule it out.

[glrnet]

 

 

Sent from my Zed using Nangkang tyres front, RE040's rear

[rtbiscuit]

why join the TTIP at all?

 

if its not a positive manoeuvre stay as we are on our current UK US trade setup.

 

we wouldn't spend any money on negotiation and we wouldn't have to suffer the TTIP. even the french and germans are starting to distance themselves form it.

 

with regards to obama's back of the queue crock of crap; he leaves soon anyway no one knows whosa next or what their plan is. and currently the queue is only one contract and thats the TTIP and thats about to fall through, so we would then go straight to the front of the queue.

[coldel]

I struggle to believe any politician, us, uk or europe and who knows what the next US president will want and who it will be, as i said, whether we "could" or "would" is another story, but i dont think you can 100% rule it out.

 

Its funny but generally politicians are reviled, but they are just people. I used to live in Putney two streets from Cleggs house, I remember one evening Rebecca and I out for a walk along the river then cutting across the park on the way back and noticing a couple walking towards us with a couple walking closely behind. Then noticed it was the Cleggs, they walked right past us and he was pretty much in tears, you could tell that behind the scenes the guy was probably breaking down under the stress (the couple behind were a couple of bodyguards!) - I am not saying they are all lovely people there are plenty of muppets amongst them who are power hungry, but they are all pretty much bound by what they can say, do, behave etc. I genuinely think Clegg was probably one of the good guys who got strung out keeping the tories in line. You only have to look at the headline on Sky News today, Cameron Climbdown - its always negative language even if they do something good.

 

Thats not all a pop at you JP, you are right, you can hardly believe a politician as they are bound by the political line as to what to say - just don't think that they are all evil people.

[Brummiestormer]

All i know is when i drove down to Dubrovnik last year only had to stop at the Bosnian border to show my passport---i'll miss that if nothing else lol