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coldel

Brexit 23rd June..?

  

168 members have voted

  1. 1. How are you likely to vote in the upcoming EU referendum

    • Stay
      62
    • Leave
      82
    • Unsure
      18
    • Not going to vote
      6


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Is it too early to start debating how to vote on this subject...

Edited by coldel

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Good point, will add one, schoolboy error!

 

...added

Edited by coldel

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My general feeling is that because everything is so vague from both sides everyone will vote on their emotional stand point than any rational one - and it seems like so many people have associated immigration as the driving issue within the EU its likely to work very much in the favour the Leave campaign...

 

...and my next thought would then be do Scotland have another referendum on UK membership? Leaving the EU is a big constitutional change, one that could justify another vote north of the border.

Edited by coldel

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Personally, I'm for staying in. I can't help but feel that it's going to be like the Scotland thing again: All fear and worrying and panic and made-up guesses with zero thought or facts to back up leaving the EU. Everyone will say that it's so we can control immigration (in reality, it won't change as we need cheap labour) or so we can make our own laws (actually, we do, and we even tend to ignore the Brussels directives when they're stupid: Votes for prisoners, any one?). So much negativity towards what has actually been a very successful union, for the most part. Of course it needs work, it's not perfect by any means (fishing quotas for one), but in terms of trade and industry I think it will be costing the average person more if we leave than if we stay. Ask sme people if they'd be happier to pay more to leave, and I think they'd change their minds.

 

It irks me that I'm on the same side as the Sturgeon though, it really does. :(

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I am for leaving. :thumbs:

 

I know this is up for deabte but imo put simply, i think the cons out weigh the pros.

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I don't really care, because I suspect that in reality it will make bugger all difference to me :p

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I am for leaving. :thumbs:

 

I know this is up for deabte but imo put simply, i think the cons out weigh the pros.

Which are?

 

 

 

EDIT: Not picking on you particularly, just trying to start a debate more than anything. :)

Edited by Ekona

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I guess what I want to hear from the Leave people is what economic model they want to adopt? Something like the Swiss?

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On the most part having to deal with ridiculous EU directives/laws, the eu court of human rights (abu hamza as a case in point) etc, health tourists.

 

Maybe we can get back to gallons too :lol:

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I have been reading up on the impact on the more objective sites and the idea it appears that leaving the EU will let the UK suddenly become this self serving entity seems pretty wide of the mark.

 

The ECHR for instance, is part of any Europeans countries trade agreements who are outside of the EU. So even if we vote Leave, we still have to sign up to it to negotiate the trade agreements that will bind the UK to the EU, in the same way Norway for example have to. It will be true of many EU policies, except by being out of the EU we no longer have a say in what or how they are created.

 

There seems to be this view that we vote Leave, then the following week we are own country and can do what we like which is not true. Actually the whole exit time period will take a minimum of 2 years before anything actually happens in terms of negotiating the exit.

Edited by coldel

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So even if we "leave" the EU we will still be governed by its rules and regs?

 

I can see we might have to with regards to business but not in such areas as fishing quotas, echr, buidling regs (another bug bear by the way) etc

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Absolutely you can still push your own local laws but anything which will impact EU law and trading has to abide by laws operating in both directions, there has to be balance of compromise to what both sides expect in a deal?

 

Greenland voted out in the 80's, they managed to renegotiate a better deal on fishing in its waters, so reducing other countries fishing it and allowing for their own fleets to have more access - but, other countries can still fish it. So it can work better, although they now find themselves in an economy that has topped out as they voted out based on that single policy, and now are considering wanting back in, although thats much harder than leaving it seems and will take years.

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PS I am just playing all this back from 'as independent a view' as I can find online, I am no top EU legislative economist!

 

But with just say 1 hours searching you can make a much more informed vote on this than just defaulting to voting 'to keep the immigrants out'

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I'm leaning towards leaving. If we think we can do it better then should be given a fair crack of the whip, I would rather we try to get our house in order ourselves and use out taxes for our own benefit. Then maybe rejoin in say 7-10 years time on our terms. Stop the drain on the NHS, Repeal the stupid EU laws like suction power of a vacuum clear or motor in a hair dryer. May sound a bit daft as what I'm suggesting is another referendum to rejoin but would rather at least have the option than continue to pump loads into Europe, and not get an equal return. I would also like to see an Aussie style points system in place for immigration skilled workers with an annual cap, and not for parents/grandparents/bothers/sisters/uncles/cousins of skllled workers. Interesting times ahead and just hope that people can see past the immigration issue which is pretty much what it will boil down to IMO.

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How is leaving the EU going to help the NHS? To any meaningful degree, I mean.

 

Once we're out, we're staying out. Going back in would never be an option, not in my lifetime.

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It will take 10 years to actually exit and then bed down a completely new economic system operating with the EU, at least. This isn't something you can turn on and off every couple of years. The cost of simply (I say simply rather ironically) will run to billions in terms of just staffing and maintaining our new trade agreements across the EU - that would even vary massively depending on if we adopt a single trade approach or on a bi-lateral basis in which we would need to set up trade agreements with each trading partner.

 

What happens to all the UK nationals outside of the UK once we exit? Its can't be BAU for them. Do we discriminate against an immigrant who is willing to do the sloppy jobs that UK people wont do vs an immigrant that is a doctor? One is higher paid than the other, but both are working and earning their way in life so why discriminate? (which is what I don't like about the reference to the Aus idea). If we want access to a free market i.e. the EU in terms of how we trade, we have to allow for the free movement of immigrants...

 

What about the US? They align with us and support us in many ways, because we get them a voice at the EU table, what happens to that relationship when we become less important in that respect?

 

Trade with the EU is worth something like £400bn per year, we pay around £10bn a year to be in it once you take into account the rebate - are we confident we will not incur trade taxation to the sum of £10bn because if it exceeds that you are already financially worse off?

 

Greenland is an interesting example of the challenges of going it alone - its not a comparable one as theirs is a much simpler model, but that they exited to 'grab back control' of their fishing industry, but now want back in because they cannot negotiate competitive deals with China or the US without being within the EU.

 

Probably sounds like I am a Stay, and I am veering towards that, there is something that makes me feel a little entrepreneurial and tempted by a Leave, but at the moment I dont think many people have really looked into this and what it means...that they are voting quite blind not realising what they are committing to.

Edited by coldel
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It will take 10 years to actually exit and then bed down a completely new economic system operating with the EU, at least. This isn't something you can turn on and off every couple of years. The cost of simply (I say simply rather ironically) will run to billions in terms of just staffing and maintaining our new trade agreements across the EU - that would even vary massively depending on if we adopt a single trade approach or on a bi-lateral basis in which we would need to set up trade agreements with each trading partner.

 

What happens to all the UK nationals outside of the UK once we exit? Its can't be BAU for them. Do we discriminate against an immigrant who is willing to do the sloppy jobs that UK people wont do vs an immigrant that is a doctor? One is higher paid than the other, but both are working and earning their way in life so why discriminate? (which is what I don't like about the reference to the Aus idea). If we want access to a free market i.e. the EU in terms of how we trade, we have to allow for the free movement of immigrants...

 

What about the US? They align with us and support us in many ways, because we get them a voice at the EU table, what happens to that relationship when we become less important in that respect?

 

Trade with the EU is worth something like £400bn per year, we pay around £10bn a year to be in it once you take into account the rebate - are we confident we will not incur trade taxation to the sum of £10bn because if it exceeds that you are already financially worse off?

 

Greenland is an interesting example of the challenges of going it alone - its not a comparable one as theirs is a much simpler model, but that they exited to 'grab back control' of their fishing industry, but now want back in because they cannot negotiate competitive deals with China or the US without being within the EU.

 

Probably sounds like I am a Stay, and I am veering towards that, there is something that makes me feel a little entrepreneurial and tempted by a Leave, but at the moment I dont think many people have really looked into this and what it means...that they are voting quite blind not realising what they are committing to.

+1 ^^ few good points indeed

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PS I am just playing all this back from 'as independent a view' as I can find online, I am no top EU legislative economist!

 

But with just say 1 hours searching you can make a much more informed vote on this than just defaulting to voting 'to keep the immigrants out'

 

You see this is why i didnt want to discuss my "reasons", i didnt mention immigration, yet you automatically assume its to do with immigration.

 

Nhs tourism apparently costs £200 million, it may be a drop in the ocean, but its 200 million i would prefer used on uk residents :)

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I guess what I want to hear from the Leave people is what economic model they want to adopt? Something like the Swiss?

 

Yes, what I want to hear is a clear set of directions. If we stay we get Xxx. If we leave we get Yyy.

 

Stay or go is a bit vague, if we end up like Switzerland or Norway I'm sure many would be happy, if we end up like North Korea then maybe not so happy!

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"If" we do Brexit, and Cameron throws in the towel. Does this mean Boris will be PM??

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I'll vote to stay in.

 

The reforms Dave's been "battling for Britain" (it sickens me every time he abuses that phrase) don't add up to a hill of beans. People will vote to leave unless The Sun decides otherwise. The bananas will return to a bendier state and be sold by the lb and some non-nationals will lose some in work benefits. The nationals who don't habitually work now will continue to not work.

 

On the positive side, when the people vote to leave, Dave will have to resign. Also we'll finally be able to explode the myth that EU migration is driven by benefits and migrants are what's been ruining the NHS and education and the roads and the economy and stopped England winning the World Cup and the crap weather and the drop off in quality of the pies at Mrs Miggins' Pie Shop :lol:

 

 

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