Maggz Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Thanks for the breakdown @Adrian@TORQEN Much appreciated So yes... Expensive games were playing for a feeling of greater freedom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The G Man Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 4.3% tariff from the US direct on car parts (this is a car forum afterall)? Sorry, senior moment probably, but is this on top of the now, 24% VAT/duty? just to be clear, I’m a complete europhile, voted remain, but a possible 4.3% import tariff on a Whipple, May change my mind i know, I’m fickle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldel Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) No expert by any stretchbut I think US imports are subject to VAT + 10% duty currently, if that's right then you save 5% or so as you would still have to pay VAT plus the 4.3% I am pretty sure VAT will remain in place! Probably need to check in with the traders on here that import all sorts of stuff (Torqen/Tarmac etc) from the US as sure they would be looking at their business models over the next 6 months or so! Edited November 23, 2018 by coldel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
docwra Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Maggz, what do you do for a living? Im not sure Ive seen anyone else who has that level of grasp of the situation (certainly not the politicians lol), I honestly dont think Id have said anything different myself. FTR Ive owned and run an aviation recruitment company that gets about 65% of its income from Europe for the last 18 years, Im there visiting every few weeks as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggz Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 20 minutes ago, docwra said: Maggz, what do you do for a living? Im not sure Ive seen anyone else who has that level of grasp of the situation (certainly not the politicians lol), I honestly dont think Id have said anything different myself. FTR Ive owned and run an aviation recruitment company that gets about 65% of its income from Europe for the last 18 years, Im there visiting every few weeks as well Haha thanks. Probably the kindest thing I've been told on the web Uh, I will try to keep it short. I'm a e-commerce manager for a large UK car parts company But that doesn't have anything to do with my interest in politics, history and economics. It's more the fact I was born in Yugoslavia a long time ago, to a Serbian dad, and Bosnian mom, and had my closest family members on both sides of the Yugoslav war, which was started due to populist politicians talking about "us" and "them" although we were all the same people, and due to foreign countries helping us be "free". So I know too well what patriotism and nationalism does to people unfortunately, and more importantly what propaganda is, as we kept listening to both sides interpreting the same events quite differently. So I'm a strong believer in the European project, and believe it's the only thing that can save us from any new European conflicts, and as mentioned guarantee continuous development. I also love reading and researching on things I know nothing about 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bullet Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) I really don't understand your logic Maggz, "Not sure anyone can afford an exit. Italy is broke, worse than Greece was." Because of the EU, more specifically the euro. all of your arguments about what the UK would have to do after hard brexit are all backwards. It all comes down to reinstating infrastructure that was taken down by the Eu, The EU destroyed our car industry, our fishing industry, our steel and aluminium industry, These were the backbone of the country. What they did essentially was remove our way of support ourselves so that we had to depend on them. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/21/the-eu-has-destroyed-some-of-our-most-prosperous-industries---an/ http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/16/how-joining-the-eu-led-to-a-big-decline-in-uk-industry/ 2 hours ago, Maggz said: Haha thanks. Probably the kindest thing I've been told on the web Uh, I will try to keep it short. I'm a e-commerce manager for a large UK car parts company But that doesn't have anything to do with my interest in politics, history and economics. It's more the fact I was born in Yugoslavia a long time ago, to a Serbian dad, and Bosnian mom, and had my closest family members on both sides of the Yugoslav war, which was started due to populist politicians talking about "us" and "them" although we were all the same people, and due to foreign countries helping us be "free". So I know too well what patriotism and nationalism does to people unfortunately, and more importantly what propaganda is, as we kept listening to both sides interpreting the same events quite differently. So I'm a strong believer in the European project, and believe it's the only thing that can save us from any new European conflicts, and as mentioned guarantee continuous development. I also love reading and researching on things I know nothing about Vested interest...with your background asking you about the EU is like asking the ceo of cadburys "who makes the best chocolate" Also i was under the impression the the Yugoslav war kicked of when the IMF agreed to loan Yugoslavia money, but required a series of reforms which worsened unemployment, decentralised the Communist party and helped fuel nationalism" Mmmm, sounds familiar... Yep the IMF along with the EU that have crushed Italy, Greece, Spain etc. There is a continuing theme here. Edited November 23, 2018 by Bullet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggz Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bullet said: I really don't understand your logic Maggz, "Not sure anyone can afford an exit. Italy is broke, worse than Greece was." Because of the EU, more specifically the euro. all of your arguments about what the UK would have to do after hard brexit are all backwards. It all comes down to reinstating infrastructure that was taken down by the Eu, The EU destroyed our car industry, our fishing industry, our steel and aluminium industry, These were the backbone of the country. What they did essentially was remove our way of support ourselves so that we had to depend on them. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/21/the-eu-has-destroyed-some-of-our-most-prosperous-industries---an/ http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/16/how-joining-the-eu-led-to-a-big-decline-in-uk-industry/ Vested interest...with your background asking you about the EU is like asking the ceo of cadburys "who makes the best chocolate" Let me address yout point about Italy. Without explaining financial markets in detail and how much "trust" in a counties ability to control their finances mean for its actual financial stability, let me explain something else, which you probably didn't find on your news sources. I'll try to keep it simple, luckily Italy suffers from the same problems as my old country Slovenia, so I know a bit about it, and as before, anyone please feel free to correct any wrong statements or misrepresentation of data which I may do, as I'm no financial expert, and I'll be simplifying it greatly, as it is quite a complex subject. Italian banks, dealt mostly with simple bank commercial business in Italy, probably 80-90%, as ours did. No real foreign investment, not really an incredible housing bubble, so 2008 crisis wasn't really a big deal as it was in other places. Italy is mostly an agricultural country (apart from the north) and lives off exports and tourism mostly, so other countries suffering slowly impacted them. However, what was unique with Italy was that their banks were the main lenders of money to their government, crazy right? Now less exports, less tourism, less money flowing in, in an already not very rich country is a problem. Government spending like crazy regardless, and borrowing money from its own banks, even worse. So GDP went down, and lending up... some ECB data - to remove opinions: The stock of government bonds in the portfolios of Italian banks moved from 182.9 billion euros at the end of 2007 to a peak of 463.9 billion in May 2015, according to ECB data. They increased again to another peak of 472.1 billion in June 2016 This is obviously Europe's fault! Not Lehman brothers collapsing and pushing half the world markets down the toilet. Anyways ... Italian banks cut lending, big time, to companies and people as it was unsustainable. Spending went down, less money to companies. Less company investments, slowing market... downward spiral. Here's bank of Italia graph oh how much banks cut loans Of course there are other reasons as well...but just explaining actual events and facts. Now Italy being a special place as it is, it also had 8 different prime minister's in 8 years from at least 5 parties. Talk about a stable country which is working on a single strategy how to improve its situation. Again...here are all the names and party colours: Again Europe's fault...how could they?! Italy has been dealing with power grabs and has been having elections at least once of not twice per year in some cases. No laws, no rules, no plan, it's all about elections over and over again. They are an absolute mess, and if they weren't one of the richest counties in the world art and history wise, with some cracking wine and some fashion...(clearly a joke), they'd be bust a long time ago. Also Germans fault, clearly. Now lastly... Credit agencies giving credit ratings like AA, A+ etc. rely on stability, governments which don't collapse before all ministers are appointed, stable lending, low lending Vs gdp rates, etc. This part is my initial point...they need trust... With no trust in a market, they label it accordingly... agencies, not Europe, and with bad labels, the international credits to help local banks are more risking, therefore more expensive, meaning they're making any recovery that much harder. Google Fitch, Moody's, A.M Best ... Europe again...how could they. What Europe did however do, is say it will not bail out 400bn Euros, as long as the Italian government is doing what it's doing. What is it actually doing you may wonder? Threatening with an exit on TV, while begging the ECB, European parliament, and ze awful Germans to bail them out, as otherwise the whole Europe is at risk. You have to love their Exit based 5* party that is leading the current government. My sincere apologies for the lengthy post. And everyone knows the best chocolate is ze German Ritter Sport! Edited November 23, 2018 by Maggz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldel Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Bullet said: I really don't understand your logic Maggz, "Not sure anyone can afford an exit. Italy is broke, worse than Greece was." Because of the EU, more specifically the euro. all of your arguments about what the UK would have to do after hard brexit are all backwards. It all comes down to reinstating infrastructure that was taken down by the Eu, The EU destroyed our car industry, our fishing industry, our steel and aluminium industry, These were the backbone of the country. What they did essentially was remove our way of support ourselves so that we had to depend on them. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/21/the-eu-has-destroyed-some-of-our-most-prosperous-industries---an/ http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/16/how-joining-the-eu-led-to-a-big-decline-in-uk-industry/ Vested interest...with your background asking you about the EU is like asking the ceo of cadburys "who makes the best chocolate" Also i was under the impression the the Yugoslav war kicked of when the IMF agreed to loan Yugoslavia money, but required a series of reforms which worsened unemployment, decentralised the Communist party and helped fuel nationalism" Mmmm, sounds familiar... Yep the IMF along with the EU that have crushed Italy, Greece, Spain etc. There is a continuing theme here. Again as other have hinted, simply linking your point of view to someone like John Redwood who has always been a Euro-sceptic, and part of the ERG is simply not a credible source of info. He is going to cherry pick data and present it around a pre-defined argument - you are simply falling in behind that with what is called confirmation bias. You quoted some industries there, the car industry for instance, which is at an all time historical high - the only decline in the last 18 months has been due mainly to fears around Brexit and the impact on looking legislation on diesel. A simple screen grab of last 7 years output data for new cars from UK industry via SMMT Its also interesting that you use the word backbone of the UK industry to be manufacturing and fishing, fishing accounts for around 0.5% of the countries overall production (GDP), 20 years ago it was 1.5% so yes technically it has declined, but it was never the backbone of UK output, miles from it in fact. What you ARE referring to is the impact of local employment challenges when industries close down, the impact of cheap product from China was always going to impact aluminium/steel production. The introduction of cheap flights was always going to impact seaside towns which are now ghost towns. So on and so forth. This I agree is a failure of the government to ensure other employment opportunities arose, it did focus on financial services and the south east. But it is not something you can simply point the finger at Europe for being the sole protagonist, its quite frankly false. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevoD Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Wouldn't opening up the mines, firing up the kilns be like going back to the 80s. Personally, I can't see many people willing to work in those @*!# conditions for @*!# money as they did decades ago again when the UK has become a big player in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors. If the EU killed these industries by making the working regs to improve safety and quality of life making them go to the third world countries where they could continue cutting costs in safety I think its best they don't come back. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggz Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 hours ago, Bullet said: I really don't understand your logic Maggz, "Not sure anyone can afford an exit. Italy is broke, worse than Greece was." Because of the EU, more specifically the euro. all of your arguments about what the UK would have to do after hard brexit are all backwards. It all comes down to reinstating infrastructure that was taken down by the Eu, The EU destroyed our car industry, our fishing industry, our steel and aluminium industry, These were the backbone of the country. What they did essentially was remove our way of support ourselves so that we had to depend on them. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/21/the-eu-has-destroyed-some-of-our-most-prosperous-industries---an/ http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/16/how-joining-the-eu-led-to-a-big-decline-in-uk-industry/ Vested interest...with your background asking you about the EU is like asking the ceo of cadburys "who makes the best chocolate" Also i was under the impression the the Yugoslav war kicked of when the IMF agreed to loan Yugoslavia money, but required a series of reforms which worsened unemployment, decentralised the Communist party and helped fuel nationalism" Mmmm, sounds familiar... Yep the IMF along with the EU that have crushed Italy, Greece, Spain etc. There is a continuing theme here. Didn't see this last part. It's not exactly that simple. USA congress decided that Yugoslav republics are not to get international loans until individual countries had independence referendums. Public documents, look it up if you want. We had a 1000% inflation, country went bust. No fuel, long queues for bread and each local politicians were blaming central Belgrade government. And fed the nationalist movements that led to the breakup. You're talking out your ass. EU in late 80s and 90s? This was Europe then: Does it sound like a powerful financial beast who influenced country loans to Balkan countries? Tin foil again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stutopia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 On 22/11/2018 at 11:18, Bullet said: So you're saying that the BBC is a reliable source for truth ? ...Tell me, How many years did they cover for Jimmy saville ??? Oh sorry forgot to add cos it's all a big joke Sort of, I’m more in search of facts than the truth, but that aside, I can comfortably say I typically take the BBC at face value on a news item, because whilst no organisation is 100% accurate in its reporting 100% of the time, the thrust of what an outlet puts out is a barometer of its reliability as a trusted source. There is also the difference between BBC News getting things wrong and them having an agenda. Last but not least there’s a difference between BBC News now and BBC Corporate in the times of Jimmy Savile. I’m more than happy to stand behind the bulk of reported news I read across the likes of The Times, The Guardian, The Independent, The Telegraph or The NY Times, The Washington Post, Associated Press. The same can be said for the news I watch, rather than read, such as the on BBC, CNN or Channel 4. I don’t agree with all of the angles of these outlets when it comes to opinion pieces because that is a subjective take on what’s going on, but I can comfortably read about the Panama Papers or Snowdon in The Guardian whilst also dismissing some opinion rubbish they publish about whatever argument Piers Morgan is in this week or 12 ways to be more vegan in the post climate change era. As you point out, the BBC have gotten things wrong. However, I can’t think of a news outlet that hasn’t had to make a retraction or correction at some some point. I’ve posted up a variety of news sources I use (and trust), so anyone reading my posts is able to have a pretty good stab at seeing my angles. So now stand behind your posts and list out the full gamut of print and/or video news sources you’re using? In particular the ones that, in your words, are a “reliable source for truth”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 (edited) 11 hours ago, StevoD said: Wouldn't opening up the mines, firing up the kilns be like going back to the 80s. Personally, I can't see many people willing to work in those @*!# conditions for @*!# money as they did decades ago again when the UK has become a big player in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors. If the EU killed these industries by making the working regs to improve safety and quality of life making them go to the third world countries where they could continue cutting costs in safety I think its best they don't come back. Its very easy to highlight an industry that was known to be utterly foul to work in but the HSE and the EU were nothing all to do with the mines shutting down, they just werent profitable because of competition from European mines, the Unions and a sway to alternative future fuels at the time (gas, oil etc) I dont think Bullet is suggesting the above for anyone minute, but i suppose its a great example to jump on to try to dismiss the UK once being great and having industry @Maggz, its tragic to hear of your youth and family loses, but you can applaud yourself or your parents for choosing to better your lives somewhere else. Out of all the European countries you chose the UK, why not Germany, France, Spain etc, presumably for the opportunities this country offered you, not the EU. Edited November 24, 2018 by Jetpilot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
docwra Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 33 minutes ago, Jetpilot said: I dont think Bullet is suggesting the above for anyone minute, but i suppose its a great example to jump on to try to dismiss the UK once being great and having industry The bit that the Churchill quoters seem to miss is that things move on. Sure, we had big coal, steel and major engineering industries up to the 70's, but these are all material and labour intensive and youre never going to compete with India and China in stuff like that. How much of our GDP in the 70s was from technology and pharma? We still have industry, just not the same industry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 Absolutely, but is that directly as a result of being in the EU? Of course as a remainer you will say yes, but as i asked elsewhere with regards to the wars, would it have been any different if we had an EU army, i would bet my left nut presented with such info an EU army would have trotted off to Iran/Iraq. I have never debated the economic benefits of having a single market and the opportunities it presents, but sadly i cant just simply believe just simply believe we wouldnt have a decent economy if we hadnt joined, it would just be under different agreements. I appreciate your interest and business relations with the EU member states, so if the shoe was on the other foot and you were a fisherman, would you still be so pro eu, of course not, i dont know you and dont really know any fishermen, but hardly equality if their income is being sold down the river (excuse the pun), so what % does your industry contribute to the UK economy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldel Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Not that we could ever predict what an EU army would do or how it would operate but the US led Iraq war was not supported by the EU with France and Germany both very vocal against the US and UK doing it. So would have an EU army unreliant on the US have done it, who knows. And yes we would have an economy doing stuff if we never joined the EU, again impossible to predict what it would have been but we did grow as an economy throughout our EU membership, we were not in a terrible place. What we need to try and speculate about is the reality i.e. what will our relationship look like in future as what has happened, has happened. So sure, lets retain complete rights to our waters (and ignore for now any tit-for-tat where the EU ban us from their waters that we currently fish) in exchange for damaging tariffs against our financial services industry - tens of billions of pounds leaves the economy, fisherman still have the right to fish here but have their income taxes raised or public services like policing and health reduced to cover the shortfall of loss of income into the economy. Fishing is an emotive issue, as it relates directly to the passionate views around sovereignty in that by banning EU fishermen completely we have 'made it' in terms of being an independent island - the EU know its a political hot potato and will use it to their advantage, but thats a fault of the British general public to make it such a big issue. All that said, fishing and manufacturing are very much local issues that need fixing and have been wilfully ignored by successive governments be it labour or tory, none of them addressed the shift in the backbone of the economy switching to tech, pharma, IT, services and left communities with no gainful employment. That is complete governmental failure to listen to the people. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggz Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 hours ago, Jetpilot said: Its very easy to highlight an industry that was known to be utterly foul to work in but the HSE and the EU were nothing all to do with the mines shutting down, they just werent profitable because of competition from European mines, the Unions and a sway to alternative future fuels at the time (gas, oil etc) I dont think Bullet is suggesting the above for anyone minute, but i suppose its a great example to jump on to try to dismiss the UK once being great and having industry @Maggz, its tragic to hear of your youth and family loses, but you can applaud yourself or your parents for choosing to better your lives somewhere else. Out of all the European countries you chose the UK, why not Germany, France, Spain etc, presumably for the opportunities this country offered you, not the EU. We've chosen the UK because we're both digital professionals and wanted to work in the most developed market which also had (until gdpr) the most lax laws around data and privacy, as my industry relies quite heavily on studying human behaviour, habits, and information around devices and your location, shopping patterns, etc. I didn't move to the UK as I was poor looking for work. We had 2 cars, a trike (can am Spyder) a house, a weekend retreat smaller house, and travelled at least 4 times a year. It was not a financial or wellbeing decision. It was purely a knowledge and professional development one. We also worked for one of the biggest regional companies back home. UK was interesting for highly qualified professionals, and to a degree still is. However, now with the situation we're in, this may very well change. For us as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldel Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Maggz said: We've chosen the UK because we're both digital professionals and wanted to work in the most developed market which also had (until gdpr) the most lax laws around data and privacy, as my industry relies quite heavily on studying human behaviour, habits, and information around devices and your location, shopping patterns, etc. I didn't move to the UK as I was poor looking for work. We had 2 cars, a trike (can am Spyder) a house, a weekend retreat smaller house, and travelled at least 4 times a year. It was not a financial or wellbeing decision. It was purely a knowledge and professional development one. We also worked for one of the biggest regional companies back home. UK was interesting for highly qualified professionals, and to a degree still is. However, now with the situation we're in, this may very well change. For us as well. On a completely random note, location data is cool, I ran a ratail project with a company called Pointr, worth a look at them. Sorry, back on course, brexit! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ekona Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Brexit is anything but on course...! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggz Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, coldel said: On a completely random note, location data is cool, I ran a ratail project with a company called Pointr, worth a look at them. Sorry, back on course, brexit! It is, I worked for big UK grocer for several years, and having the ability to know what someone browsed 5 times without buying, and being within walking distance of a shop with those items on stock, you'd be amazed what a subtle nudge with "last 3 items on stock, 2min walking away" would do to a purchase decision Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldel Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, Maggz said: It is, I worked for big UK grocer for several years, and having the ability to know what someone browsed 5 times without buying, and being within walking distance of a shop with those items on stock, you'd be amazed what a subtle nudge with "last 3 items on stock, 2min walking away" would do to a purchase decision The one I was working on is one of the 'big 4' where we did micro location marketing i.e. if you were stood next to the soft drinks aisle we could push say a deal to them live for a soft drinks brand that paid us to do it - error margin was less than 4 feet - the project won the retail week tech and comms award in 2016. It was fun in the trials watching floor plans of retail stores and all these dots on them that told me who the person was and their movements around the store etc. Of course all opted into by the customers before anyone goes off on a 'they are spying on us' rant Anyway, back off course with our waywards efforts at brexiting! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggz Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 42 minutes ago, coldel said: The one I was working on is one of the 'big 4' where we did micro location marketing i.e. if you were stood next to the soft drinks aisle we could push say a deal to them live for a soft drinks brand that paid us to do it - error margin was less than 4 feet - the project won the retail week tech and comms award in 2016. It was fun in the trials watching floor plans of retail stores and all these dots on them that told me who the person was and their movements around the store etc. Of course all opted into by the customers before anyone goes off on a 'they are spying on us' rant Anyway, back off course with our waywards efforts at brexiting! Ahhh to good ol' beacons. We did store layout heat maps with them, trying to figure out where the intended customer journey gets messed up, and trying to figure out if any particular section keeps causing people to go back instead of keep going forward. It's a fascinating industry. I could keep watching at them and people movements for hours and hours. We even wanted to test sending people messages they've missed their shelf of products which they've frequently viewed online, but the board pulled the plug, due to big brother concerns, and didn't want to risk any customers freaking out haha. Data...more data... I need all the data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stutopia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 At least the Gibraltar thing got resolved today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetpilot Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 Good lord, cant we do anything without having to agree with someone else in the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATTAK Z Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, SuperStu said: At least the Gibraltar thing got resolved today. How ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stutopia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 hours ago, ATTAK Z said: How ? They put it off a while https://www.ft.com/content/6fc997b6-d379-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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