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Brexit 23rd June..?


coldel
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168 members have voted

  1. 1. How are you likely to vote in the upcoming EU referendum

    • Stay
      62
    • Leave
      82
    • Unsure
      18
    • Not going to vote
      6


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Bit late to this party due to unforeseen circumstances, but I'll make my case anyway.

 

My head says yes to a second referendum, purely because the ramifications are so big and the Leave lies have cone undone. My heart however says no: You get one chance, so crack on and make the best of it.

 

I still maintain that nothing will change, as Col has mentioned we'll likely end up with free movement and abiding by EU rules in exchange for remaining in the EEA. Anything else will simply be too difficult politically to sort.

Edited by Ekona
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The EU are looking for any possible way to keep their political project going. If that means breaking up other unions to do it, then so be it.

 

Even when speaking passionately about remaining in the EU, as soon as the Scottish MEP spoke about the EU needing to look at some of its perceived anti democratic decisions, even she was shouted down and talked over by Martin Schulz. The video is there for all to see.

 

They will simply not accept anyone, even those positive about the EU, suggesting that it needs to change its path.

 

As for Scotland basing it's future wealth and prosperity on a resource such as North Sea oil, which is both finite and has wild price fluctuations. $100 at around the time of Scottish independence vote and $30 a couple of years later, doesn't sound like the sort of stable rock you want to try and underpin an economy with.

 

If the north Sea and oil were split out, it is highly likely these would not be gifted 100% to Scotland anyway and split on a pro rata basis, whatever that method may be.

 

However let's say Scotland was independent. The revenue from North Sea oil for Scotland was being promoted as up to £7.5bn during the independence campaign.

 

In reality the revenue for the latest financial year is apparently just £35 million. Or around £500 million if all the tax rebates were removed (which would of course decimate the industry and make almost everyone in Scotland working in the industry unemployed)

 

Scotland would find itself having to plug a gap of around £7bn. Around £1,300 for every person living in Scotland. And people think the cuts made by Westminster are deep.

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As for Scotland basing it's future wealth and prosperity on a resource such as North Sea oil, which is both finite and has wild price fluctuations. $100 at around the time of Scottish independence vote and $30 a couple of years later, doesn't sound like the sort of stable rock you want to try and underpin an economy with.

 

If the north Sea and oil were split out, it is highly likely these would not be gifted 100% to Scotland anyway and split on a pro rata basis, whatever that method may be.

 

However let's say Scotland was independent. The revenue from North Sea oil for Scotland was being promoted as up to £7.5bn during the independence campaign.

 

In reality the revenue for the latest financial year is apparently just £35 million. Or around £500 million if all the tax rebates were removed (which would of course decimate the industry and make almost everyone in Scotland working in the industry unemployed)

 

 

When someone discusses “Oil Revenues†what is the first thing that enters your head? Is it;

 

1. The Tax levied per barrel of oil produced?

2. The Tax levied on the profit an oil company makes?

3. The corporation tax of an oil company?

 

This isn’t a trick question, but in order for you to understand, “Oil Revenue†we need to make something abundantly clear – there is a complex system of taxation that masks both the true value of oil & gas and the extent of its influence on our economy.

 

SUPPLEMENTARY CHARGE

This is essentially the closest you will get to option 1. It is a levy on the profit of oil and gas extraction charged at between 30 - 20% and is usually lumped in with corporation tax.

 

Petroleum Revenue Tax

Petroleum revenue tax is option 2. It another additional Levy on the profit specifically arising from the extraction of hydrocarbons on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) It only applies to fields that were licensed & approved prior to March 1993 – meaning that newer developments are NOT subject to this charge. With this in mind, it is unsurprising then that “PRT†revenues are falling, as the fields developed prior to 1993 are all very near their end of field life. (The rate of pre-1993 PRT was reduced from 75% at inception to 50% after 1993) PRT was re-introduced on a case-by case basis, after tax-allowances at a rate of 35%

 

Ring-fenced Corporation Tax

This is a special form of taxation that prevents oil companies from offsetting losses elsewhere in their business against an over performing asset. It applies only to Oil & Gas companies. Corporation tax is universal across the UK at 20%.

 

 

Now in anyones mind, that is a LOT of tax for oil companies to burden, but it is the price of doing business & many companies do still generate profit, when the oil they sell is priced high enough. It is conversely true that only when oil companies are making big profits, that the UK exchequer does too – this is important, because this what the media mean when they say “oil and gas revenues†are down, declining, diminished, waning, etc etc – BUT – it is not the whole story.

 

There are many companies, who support the oil & gas industry in myriad ways - but are not included in the figures for “Oil & Gas†because they are not directly profiting from the extraction of Oil & Gas nor are they subject to the taxes I’ve outlined. Does that make the income generated by these companies any less dependent on the Oil & Gas Industry? NO! Are their profits subject to the price of oil? Partially, but so long as the industry continues to operate, these companies still turn-over vast sums of money which contribute significantly to the economy of the UK.

 

Let me give you some examples. Emerson, Siemens, Honywell, ABB, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Oceaneering, Wood Group PSN, Enermech, Scotoil, Asco, Petrofac, Aramark, ESS, Stork, Amec Foster Wheeler, SubSea7, Bibby offshore, Siepem, Sodexo, Capita, Bond, Bristows, CHC Scotia, Odjfell Drilling, Dolphin Drilling, Diamond Drilling, Noble Drilling, Intertek, SGS, IKM, Tyco, Falck Nutec, Survivex, Sikorsky, AirBus Helicopters, Hilton Hotels, Marriot Hotels, Travelodge, Best Western, Holiday Inn, British Airways, Eastern Airways, Easyjet, Scotrail

 

The list is literally endless & the point I’m trying to make is that the vast sums of income tax, national insurance, VAT, Fuel Duty etc generated in support of the oil & gas industry, despite being generated in Scotland – is deemed “British†revenue by virtue that nearly 95% of companies that actively support oil & gas are tax-registered in England. At the moment, revenue from income tax & NI is based on “sampling†across the UK & by population share, which is a ludicrously simplistic & inaccurate method given the disparity of the wealth generated in Scotland and the tax ultimately attributed here.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf

 

If you work in Scotland, but your payroll department issues your payslip from a tax-registered office outside of Scotland, the tax you pay is not deemed Scottish, but British. In the instance where Scotland took complete control of its economy, there is a colossal slice of British Tax Revenue that would become exclusively Scottish & over the last 4 years the British establishment & media has worked hard to ignore / disguise that very fact.

 

 

What I’ve outlined above doesn’t just apply to the Oil & Gas industry; it applies right-across the UK in every town and city. The ramifications of correctly-allocating the tax revenues of companies that primarily do business in Scotland or within Scotland’s waters is profound & can’t be ignored when considering if Scotland should stay in the EU as an independent country.

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And what happens to all this tax generated from these ancillary business's when, as I've pointed out, this finite resource runs out?

 

The tax generated from these ancillary businesses will also fluctuate wildly in line with global oil demand.

 

If Scotland does increase taxation above that of the rest of the UK, then all that will happen is what we already see. Profit juggling to realise the income in whatever state has the lowest tax rate. Scotland would just have its own starbucks/amazon esque issues, only it would also be with all the companies you list above.

 

Obviously a move to a single state single tax regime as is being mooted by the germany/france document I've mentioned above will negate this to some degree.

 

However there is then the risk that the remaining UK sets a tax bar lower than the EU superstate and it is the UK which becomes the tax haven of Europe (pending whatever trade agreements are put in place).

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My first and last post on this subject.

Whilst I voted to remain I can't help thinking that if Scotland had no intention of accepting the outcome of the referendum then why did they bother taking part.

If taking part in a uk wide referendum how can you then only accept the results from Scotland

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Net result? We are going to get one hell of a cr*p trade deal with Europe :(

 

One thing's for sure, we will not get a better deal, the best we can hope for is the same deal. Same goes for the rest of the world. I look at it like this, over the years we've had the opportunities but never taken them. Take fast food for example a market that is completely dominated by U.S companies and nothing to do at all with the EU. Why have British companies not stepped in, are we just too lazy? then there's transport, Arriva, a German company run all the Trains and most of the bus's around here, why? I have watched British companies vanish from the scene simply because their products just weren't good enough, British Leyland is a classic example of this. At one time we were one of the powerhouse of industry but they're either all gone or owned by foreign companies. We don't make our own cars, trucks or motorbikes and most bikes, the type you pedal, are imported. Our railway industry once the biggest in the world as recently as The 1960's has shrunk to virtually nothing and it's the same for most things in the world of technology, we invent it, others exploit it. I can remember what was known as "The Brain Drain" back in the 60's when the best people we produced simply went elsewhere, mainly the U.S and I fear we'll see a repeat of this in the next few years. There are still some shining beacons out there like Virgin and BP but a quick browse through Europe's biggest companies is quite depressing, only our banks, BP and Shell make the top 50.

 

The question is though can we reverse the decline of The U.K, we certainly have the people to do it but will they step forward or will they just clear off. That's the main challenge we face, rather than just plodding along as we are now. I'm not old enough to remember $4 to the £1 exchange rate but I can remember when it was $2.80 and devalued to $2.40 with the famous "pound in your pocket" speech. Worth just over half of that now. I'd love to be an optimist and say that things can only get better but I just can't, BTW, I believe that staying in The EU would not have changed the decline, it would just have slowed it down :surrender:

 

Pete

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And what happens to all this tax generated from these ancillary business's when, as I've pointed out, this finite resource runs out?

 

The tax generated from these ancillary businesses will also fluctuate wildly in line with global oil demand.

 

If Scotland does increase taxation above that of the rest of the UK, then all that will happen is what we already see. Profit juggling to realise the income in whatever state has the lowest tax rate. Scotland would just have its own starbucks/amazon esque issues, only it would also be with all the companies you list above.

 

Obviously a move to a single state single tax regime as is being mooted by the germany/france document I've mentioned above will negate this to some degree.

 

However there is then the risk that the remaining UK sets a tax bar lower than the EU superstate and it is the UK which becomes the tax haven of Europe (pending whatever trade agreements are put in place).

 

I'm not on about changing tax - just re-allocating it.

 

On the subject of oil running out, if you are genuinley interested I can forward you a link to a piece I wrote on it. Basically, whenever Scotland talks about Oil, it's a burden and a finite commodity, Whenever the UK talks about it, its got a bright future - it can't be both.

 

http://czkane.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/is-scotlands-oil-running-out-depends.html

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On the understanding of oil and its economic taxation as discussed above i can be honest and say " I know Nothing"

 

so over these aspects i can't comment,

 

But both G and Chesterfield seem to understand it and it is making for interesting reading

 

Everyday is a school day :thumbs:

 

with regards to the xenaphobia and racisim, its always been there, I deal as a teacher and have done over the last 13 years issues with anti sematism, anti black and anti asian issues. it is infrequent and i have seen it over 4 schools and all are graded outstanding. there has always been unpleasant undertones in our society, but they are the minority and will go back under their rocks once this has settled.

Edited by rtbiscuit
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On the understanding of oil and its economic taxation as discussed above i can be honest and say " I know Nothing"

 

so over these aspects i can't comment,

 

But both G and Chesterfield seem to understand it and it is making for interesting reading

 

Everyday is a school day :thumbs:

Certainly... Actually some great information knocking around the thread!

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I'm not on about changing tax - just re-allocating it.

 

On the subject of oil running out, if you are genuinley interested I can forward you a link to a piece I wrote on it. Basically, whenever Scotland talks about Oil, it's a burden and a finite commodity, Whenever the UK talks about it, its got a bright future - it can't be both.

 

http://czkane.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/is-scotlands-oil-running-out-depends.html

 

Agreed, it can't be both. The undisputable fact is, that it will run out. Even the best research in the world can only narrow it town to within several billion barrels. But it is finite.

 

My reference to tax increases was in respect of Scotland setting it's own tax regime. We already see that with the moves to change the 40p threshold at a different rate to the rest of the UK.

 

Enough groundswell amongst the SNP voters to see the "rich" and corporations taxed more heavily, combined with the lower revenue from oil may well see higher rates of tax I Scotland than in the rest of the UK. If that happens, then the tax won't be reallocated or moved.

 

Unless of course it is taxed at source and there is no escape, but then there is theven risk that these multinational oil companies could well mothball UK (or scottish) production and concentrate in middle eastern or US production. If it were the for the significant tax breaks to the North Sea operators, you'd have to wonder if they wouldn't have already done just that?

 

It most certainly is interesting times ahead.

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Yes we now can negotiate deals with other countries direct like Japan, but how much of 'their stuff' do we actually need? Putting services aside, and focusing on physical products, what is it we would want from them?

 

Well, for starters cars! Then there are the plethora of electronic gadgets that seem to fill our homes and lives that are mostly made in japan.

 

Panasonic, JVC, Sony, Canon, Toshiba, Hitachi, Sharp, Casio and not forgetting all those companies that make after market modification parts for cars that we own and so on and so forth,

 

It's worth Billions is not?

 

I think the question is, how much of OUR "stuff" do THEY want?

Edited by Rock_Steady
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Another different vision over Brexit:

 

Brexit changes nothing for the elite and their capital, but ordinary Brits will have no place left to turn

 

Thanks to an ever-growing number of international agreements, the taxes and tariffs that once slowed international trade are disappearing, making it easier to import, export, and do business across state lines. Increasingly, we do business in a borderless world.

Wealthy people don’t just do business in a borderless world–they live in it. They have their own version of free trade agreements. They can and do buy their way into virtually any country they like.

There’s even a market for passports and residence permits that help wealthy types to move between countries. It’s not cheap to join the global elite, but it is relatively easy. That’s why the vote against the EU is so heartbreaking. It was the closest thing ordinary people had to the kind of border-hopping freedoms the ruling classes have long paid dearly for.

 

More here:

 

http://qz.com/719232/those-who-voted-for-brexit-hoped-to-return-to-a-world-that-no-longer-exists/

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Yes we now can negotiate deals with other countries direct like Japan, but how much of 'their stuff' do we actually need? Putting services aside, and focusing on physical products, what is it we would want from them?

 

Well, for starters cars! Then there are the plethora of electronic gadgets that seem to fill our homes and lives that are mostly made in japan.

 

Panasonic, JVC, Sony, Canon, Toshiba, Hitachi, Sharp, Casio and not forgetting all those companies that make after market modification parts for cars that we own and so on and so forth,

 

It's worth Billions is not?

 

I think the question is, how much of OUR "stuff" do THEY want?

 

We don't import all our cars from Japan, we build them here and in the EU, Toyota, Nissan both have factories here - the Quasqui is one of the UKs biggest exports. We actually export more cars than we import, mostly to the EU as it happens. But yes it was a slightly flippant comment I made, but the point was the importance of this in the world for us.

 

So yes you are right, it is worth billions. However, and as with lots of numbers thrown around on this thread, numbers mean nothing without context. £150m a week thrown at the NHS makes people swoon with visions of hospital waiting lists halving, until you realise over a year it amounts to a 4% increase in funding which will not scratch the surface and will in all likelihood result in no noticeable change to me and you day to day. Japans total imports value is around £7bn I think from memory (feel free to correct me) but given that is something like 2% of our total imports, does it really make you think its fundamentally important that we have the capability to affect that 2%

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with regards to the xenaphobia and racisim, its always been there, I deal as a teacher and have done over the last 13 years issues with anti sematism, anti black and anti asian issues. it is infrequent and i have seen it over 4 schools and all are graded outstanding. there has always been unpleasant undertones in our society, but they are the minority and will go back under their rocks once this has settled.

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Mmm my Brexi concerns could be about to take an interesting turn. Today I recieved the following contact via email and linkedin.

 

"Dear Bockaack,

 

We are looking for an exprienced Change Manager,fitting the specifiaton below to fill a permanent position for a large Automotive customer based in Stuttgart...."

 

Could be very convenient for obtaining German residency / citizenship and a passport :)

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Mmm my Brexi concerns could be about to take an interesting turn. Today I recieved the following contact via email and linkedin.

 

"Dear Bockaack,

 

We are looking for an exprienced Change Manager,fitting the specifiaton below to fill a permanent position for a large Automotive customer based in Stuttgart...."

 

Could be very convenient for obtaining German residency / citizenship and a passport :)

 

Not to mention getting a discount of a porsche.

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