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Zeezeebaba

The EV problem.

156 posts in this topic

Global supplies of Cobalt it would seem are currently unable to meet demand. Cobalt is used with other substances like Lithium to produce the batteries needed for EVs. It constitutes up to 35% of the battery production in such brands as Tesla. The main supplier globally is the DRC and questions have been asked on how it's mined and the conditions and young age of the individuals used to mine it.

Demand is outstripping supply, Tesla now have a facility for battery production that when operational will more than double the current demand.

A great commodity to invest in it would seem.

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Don't be silly, it's a miracle thing and Tesla will solve all the problems and start mining it from the moon when the Space X project goes live. In Musk we trust!

 

 

/gangzoom

 

;) ;) ;)

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Asteroid mining, plenty of raw materials up there :)

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Had this before with lithium its largely fed by people stockpiling it to make money further down the line when prices increase , no doubt they will find alternative sources but that wasnt worthwhile when you can get children to mine it cheaply in the Congo , once prices rise to a level then other companies will invest in infrastructure to extract it. In the meantime there may be shortages though

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Tesla now have a facility for battery production that when operational will more than double the current demand.

 

 

Actually the Tesla factory is no where near full production capabilities and wouldn't be for a good few years yet.

 

Battery production is going to increase by over 6 folds compared to today though, but not because of Tesla or LG/Panasonic but due to BYD/CATL - who are upgrading their battery factories in China to a level that will make what Tesla is doing look like an after school project.

 

It would be good in future any 'EV problems' type threads are started with atleast the correct background information :)

 

lithiumionproduction-prev.jpg

Edited by gangzoom
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So basically it's actually much, much worse than what Zeezeebaba says? Yay!

 

:lol:

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Don't look at us, look at them, they're doing it bigger!

 

Phew, that was close.

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Hmm i wonder what the mining equipment run on

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So basically it's actually much, much worse than what Zeezeebaba says? Yay!

 

:lol:

 

Absolutely, once you take into account the batteries needed for grid storage we are probably currently at less than 1% of eventual global lithium battery demand.

 

Its the start of whole new industry and economics, ironic really Trump is turning back to coal/gas as way to boost the economy whilst the rest of the world is gearing up for the new energy economies of the future.

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So another natural resource like oil that there will be a shortage of in years to come and there i was thinking it was the future!

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I think if Trump said environmentalism isn't something that can be fixed through tax, but through action, he would have saved face. But no :lol:

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Posted (edited) · Report post

So another natural resource like oil that there will be a shortage of in years to come and there i was thinking it was the future!

 

There will never be a shortage of crude oil. Our education has reached a level where everyone (except Donald) knows that we can't keep burning it (and not because it's running out, because of its effect on the air and water table), so usage will peter out over the next 100 years and we will be nowhere even near depleting it by then. It was a valid concern just 20 years ago, but no longer, thank God. Trump's thinking of the next ten years, and in that context, he's doing the right thing for America. They aren't going to be giving up gas guzzlers in the next ten years.

 

If you want to worry about a resource, worry about water. If our population growth and industrial pollution doesn't slow down (it is, but not enough), then we will see drinking water shortages in our lifetimes on a global scale (ironically, only the non industrial nations, like small african nations which traditionally are thirsty, will be ok). This will then be followed by a huge investment in desalination, as it will be the only source of clean water. The in-between times will be rough, and I wouldn't be surprised if we discover a horrendous side effect to desalinating seawater and back to square one again. As long as we are such a number that our needs require us adapting the planet, rather than us adapting to IT, we're going to have these kinds of problems.

 

P.S. If you want to invest in something, make it copper, silver, or graphene, particularly silver.

Edited by Aashenfox

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So another natural resource like oil that there will be a shortage of in years to come and there i was thinking it was the future!

 

Actually not at all, oil is not an element, it's a hydrocarbon fuel source that once burnt is gone for good. ALL the materials used in a battery stay in the battery, forever, you get lithium oxidation that reduced efficiency but the raw materials are all still there. You can pretty much recycle/recover the whole cell and use it to remanufacture a new cell.

 

The battery packs themselves are showing they can last for 500K miles when used in conjunction with a decent battery management system that controls heat. 500K is roughly 50 years of usage for the 'average' motorist.

 

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I (generously) imagine the range of these things to be about 500 miles when a finalised retail product, which would be more than adequate I believe, in anyone's book. Then that equates to 1000 cycles.

 

Currently, that is a LOT of cycles for a lithium ion or lithium polymer battery. Based on current lithium battery tech, which I know a fair bit about thanks to my RC background, it would be reasonable to expect between 250 and 300 cycles before the light 'service [sic:replace] main battery' warning light will pop up, from then on, it's likely to start losing range (and become a fire hazard as teh layers start to swell and separate as the battery ages (of course there will be safety stuff to prevent this), and its down to the owner when the range becomes so poor that they have no choice). A battery that can deliver a significant number of Kilowatts on demand, and for sustained use, AND survive 300 cycles, AND not have ridonculous weight, will be a thing of great beauty.....and expense.

Edited by Aashenfox

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Based on current lithium battery tech, which I know a fair bit about thanks to my RC background, it would be reasonable to expect between 250 and 300 cycles before the light 'service [sic:replace] main battery' warning light will pop up

 

The current EV battery packs are performing far better in real life than seen on consumer electronics (RC cars included).

 

Your quite right after a few hundred cycles most consumer electronics level cells starts to show degradation but the cell chemistry used in Tesla packs are showing 5% degradation at 500 cycles and less than 10% at 1000 cycles.

 

https://electrek.co/2017/03/22/tesla-battery-cell-breakdown/

 

This has been backed up by real world examples, in the US rental cars have 200K miles and showing about 6% degradation.

 

http://gas2.org/2016/10/01/tesla-model-s-200000-miles-one-year/

 

 

A battery that can deliver a significant number of Kilowatts on demand, and for sustained use, AND survive 300 cycles, AND not have ridonculous weight, will be a thing of great beauty.....and expense.

 

Tesla cells already do all of the above (including the expense). Though apparently the reason Tesla have been able to push things along so much is because the chemistry they use is inherently more 'unstable' and liable for combustion, which is why the Tesla cars have the most advanced and protected battery packs of any EV on the road...... You should try to get hold of some cells and wire it into a RC pack (apparently the chemistry is 100% propriety to Tesla even though they are Panasonic cells so the only way to get hold of them is via salvaged Tesla car battery packs), just don't blame me if it catches on fire :D

Edited by gangzoom

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Based on current lithium battery tech, which I know a fair bit about thanks to my RC background, it would be reasonable to expect between 250 and 300 cycles before the light 'service [sic:replace] main battery' warning light will pop up

 

The current EV battery packs are performing far better in real life than seen on consumer electronics (RC cars included).

 

Your quite right after a few hundred cycles most consumer electronics level cells starts to show degradation but the cell chemistry used in Tesla packs are showing 5% degradation at 500 cycles and less than 10% at 1000 cycles.

 

https://electrek.co/...cell-breakdown/

 

This has been backed up by real world examples, in the US rental cars have 200K miles and showing about 6% degradation.

 

http://gas2.org/2016...miles-one-year/

 

 

A battery that can deliver a significant number of Kilowatts on demand, and for sustained use, AND survive 300 cycles, AND not have ridonculous weight, will be a thing of great beauty.....and expense.

 

Tesla cells already do all of the above (including the expense). Though apparently the reason Tesla have been able to push things along so much is because the chemistry they use is inherently more 'unstable' and liable for combustion, which is why the Tesla cars have the most advanced and protected battery packs of any EV on the road...... You should try to get hold of some cells and wire it into a RC pack (apparently the chemistry is 100% propriety to Tesla even though they are Panasonic cells so the only way to get hold of them is via salvaged Tesla car battery packs), just don't blame me if it catches on fire :D

 

This all still relies on them being made cheaply enough. As for these batteries being more efficient than the ones used in RC tech, yes, they are more efficient, but the substrates are the same, I question that testing and the circumstances under which it was conducted. By the way, the RC ones absolutely blow them away on power density (sustained peak current delivery per kilo of battery). ;) NAturally, as you will point out, that is because we aren't bothered about range as much as power, so its horses for courses, just wanted to throw in some props for the hobby batteries, as they are fricking awesome (and equally expensive, my best battery cost 200 quid, but it will propel a 6 kilo car to 50 mph in 3 seconds with the front wheels in the air all the way, and make a monster truck do backflips on the spot).

 

I'm with you gangzoom, I love all this, it's the future. They'll find more cobalt, or they'll be motivated to find an even better alternative. :)

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my best battery cost 200 quid, but it will propel a 6 kilo car to 50 mph in 3 seconds with the front wheels in the air all the way.

 

Is that all....The 2ton P100D Model S gets to 60 in 2.5 seconds :)

 

Regarding investments, some guy on the Tesla FaceBook group just revealed he bought about £10K worth of Tesla shares back in 2013.....I leave you guys to work out how much that's worth now. Needless to say his now asking for advice on how to be tax efficient when he comes to sell, as it's a rather large amount of capital gains his liable for, life is hard for some :)

 

35026005661_3b1b7ff2d5_z.jpg

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Bitcoin started off at <$0.003, and is now worth >$2800...

Edited by Strudul

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And I sold my stakes at 200, 420 and 780 dollars respectively. I could actually kick myself, I'd have 6 BTC all told if I had just kept the faith and held on to them.

 

A worse thought is that if I'd only become aware of them a couple of months earlier, I wouldn't need to work now.

my best battery cost 200 quid, but it will propel a 6 kilo car to 50 mph in 3 seconds with the front wheels in the air all the way.

 

Is that all....The 2ton P100D Model S gets to 60 in 2.5 seconds :)

 

Regarding investments, some guy on the Tesla FaceBook group just revealed he bought about £10K worth of Tesla shares back in 2013.....I leave you guys to work out how much that's worth now. Needless to say his now asking for advice on how to be tax efficient when he comes to sell, as it's a rather large amount of capital gains his liable for, life is hard for some :)

 

35026005661_3b1b7ff2d5_z.jpg

 

Hm, 8 cubed times bigger and only twice as fast? For shame. ;) I'm weight and grip restricted, I have a LOT more power than I can put down, if I gun it, it just does backflips on the spot, pretty funny actually. If I had equivalent traction I'd be significantly faster than the tesla, but only for about 12 minutes. :(

Edited by Aashenfox

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Cobalt is not rare it just hasnt been economic to extract it. Bit like coal in this country , we didn't run out it just became cheaper to buy it from Poland.

 

In 10 years time the batteries we use will be radically different anyhow

 

As for CGT thats easy , you just sell off a little each year and have a damn good holiday ;)

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Certainly not rare, some estimates from geological surveys including under sea nodules state 1400 years worth :)

Current active mines on land have at least 100 years worth at present demand.

Like I said a pretty good commodity to invest in moving forward as demand increases.

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So another naturaI resource like oil that there will be a shortage of in years to come and there i was thinking it was the future!

 

Actually not at all, oil is not an element, it's a hydrocarbon fuel source that once burnt is gone for good. ALL the materials used in a battery stay in the battery, forever, you get lithium oxidation that reduced efficiency but the raw materials are all still there. You can pretty much recycle/recover the whole cell and use it to remanufacture a new cell.

 

The battery packs themselves are showing they can last for 500K miles when used in conjunction with a decent battery management system that controls heat. 500K is roughly 50 years of usage for the 'average' motorist.

 

I think you may want to look into the complicated process of recycling a lithium battery, the dangers surrounding it and the environmental impact, least of all the cost, they dont even bother with the lithium as is 5x more costly than mining it.

 

You frequently describe ev's as exciting and the future, perhaps you can get your rose coloured glasses off for one second and tell us whats exciting and the future of raping our planet of yet more of its natural resources, we might as well carry on using oil until there really is an alternative where our planet isnt plundered yet further.

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You frequently describe ev's as exciting and the future, perhaps you can get your rose coloured glasses off for one second and tell us whats exciting and the future of raping our planet of yet more of its natural resources.

 

I think I can safely say our views on what the 'future' will bring is clearly divergent, but in way that doesn't matter, we are all free to express our own individual opinions. What really matters is as a group where we are heading, and actually every day am pleasantly surprised at just how quickly change is happening.

 

The current UK government isn't exactly at the forefront of renewable energy investment but despite this big wind projects and localised solar PV systems are really starting to make a big impact on the UK energy generation sector - which together supplied more power to the UK grid than nuclear+gas combined yesterday.

 

Do we really need another nuclear kettle when its now become obvious solar/wind can provide a huge chunk of energy generation?? The missing piece ofcourse is how do you store the electricity generated by solar/wind to met demands when the sun isn't out and wind isn't there....The answer, is batteries, lots and lots of them.

 

How many people want a nuclear power station building next to them if the option is instead a few storage containers of batteries that essentially just sit there making no noise/smoke and require next to no maintenance. EVs alone aren't going to drive the global demand for batteries, it's going to be industry as companies wake up to the concept of not having to pay for gas/oil to generate electricity but instead invest in solar/wind + batteries giving them essentially unlimited free electricity. It's not the desire to go 'green' which is going to change the face of power generation, it's simple economics and money!!!

 

So whilst I enjoy seeing different view points, the world is already changing, regardless of what you or I believe in.

 

35043654191_9b3733337d_z.jpg

Edited by gangzoom

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So what happens when everyone switches to free electricity, and tax revenues drop? What do you think will then be taxed or taxed higher to compensate?

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Actually green energy is not free, its renewable. Its costs something like 6-7 times more to build and collect wind energy than it does to say build a power station. Energy companies are getting a lot of crap off the press at the moment for putting up prices somewhere between 10-15% in some cases but that is to allow them to invest in renewable energy infrastructure. The government also puts billions into contracts with power companies to build green energy solutions. The key is to be clear, this is not free, its renewable. Our utility bills are going to rise substantially as renewable energy is put in place to replace ageing power stations, it has to, simple maths dictates that.

 

To be honest, I don't mind paying more to get renewable energy up and running. When it comes to my cars though, having been in a model x etc. I would rather drive and enjoy the sounds and quirks of my cheap Celica than a £60k Tesla, but thats a personal choice, silent electric cars just don't do it for me for a fun car and I couldn't care less about 0-60 times ;)

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