mbs Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 My 05 Zed is a weekend/holiday car, I have a punto to run around in. As you can now get an unregistered Zed for less than £20k I've been wondering whether I should sell my current Zed buy a new one to keep for a couple of years until I get a 370. I'm thinking along the lines that the current prices must have most of the next two years depreciation factored into the price so I'll get a new car with warranty and not lose a lot when I come to swap in a couple of years. Good idea or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chesterfield Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 If you are planning on going for a 370 in a couple of years, then you will probably lose more on a new 350 in the next two years than you will on your current one, and thats if you sell your current one in any decent timeframe. The way I look at it is: current 350 - say 10k? In two more years £7k? New 350 £20k, in two years £13k? 370 in two years - £20k? So using the figures above, you would spend £10, and to trade to the 370 spend another £7k, so alltogether £17k. Leave it two years and go from the current 350 to the 370 and its £13k. Thats if the figures above are anything like correct. Though I would guess a new 350 now will lose money more rapidly than your existing 350 in the next two years, so Id stick it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
From A to Zed Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 That's a tough one, I've been thinking the same! I'm not enitrely sure but I guess a new car is going to fall straight into the top band for road tax? If I were a betting man I would also punt on fuel getting more expensive in the medium to longer term. Also factor in the economic climate, which looks pretty bleak, and you could be facing a significant loss in 24 months... It depends if you heart rules your head I guess... Do you think an 08 car is that much better than an 05 model for the layout??? I hope I'm not putting you off but I would be tempted to keep the extra cash in the current climate. It's still a lot of car of 20k though and it will look great on the drive!! Matt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 I've been considering this aswell I can't justify the cost of upgrading, i'd rather use the money to improve my current Z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbs Posted January 7, 2009 Author Share Posted January 7, 2009 Though I would guess a new 350 now will lose money more rapidly than your existing 350 in the next two years, so Id stick it out. is that right though, if they are £20k now they have already depreciated £10k so what will a two year old 350 be worth in two years, £15k/£16k maybe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manc350z Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 IMHO I think 15 - 16 in 2 years is optimistic... i think it iwll be more like 11 - 13 best. don't hate me for that judgement on numbers... i have been depressing the cr4p out of my wife as she is looking to replace her 3 year old strudelpanzer ML Merc AMG monster so we have been shopping... at least i have a buyer for the merc but at a huge loss.. she is down 70% on what she paid for it 3 years ago.. but.. 4x4, petrol, group20 insurance, 16 mpg, expensive tyres / repairs / services and now out of warranty so not an attractive proposition to buy .. so she expected it to be painful... just not as much as it will be... But.. i'm not looking at 4x4's to replace it.. best cars we have been offered so far are - 9mth old red m3 coupe with carbon roof panel, 8k miles, dealer car, 2yr 3mth warranty, top spec cost at 55k... 31k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (not the SMG) 12mth old black 730d sport, 20inch upgrade alloys, 19k miles, dbl glazed !, electric sunblinds in rear, sunroof, top hifi + rear dvd screens, satnav, bt, cream leather trim. 2yr warranty, 26k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (this costed out at 68k new...) 10 mth old gunmetal Jag xk8 4.2. satnav, top hifi etc, 18k, 2year warranty, 12mths tax and tank "o" gas - forecourt stickered at 40.. salesman hinted 33 cash and i could have it. (think this was around 55 new) Obviously the 7 has been repalced so is suffering new model disease but the estate agent express and the handbag are current models. But if you look at the % depreciations above then the m3 is selling at 60% at <1year... the 7 is selling at 34% (yikes) at 1 year and the jag is also at 60% at <1year.. If you take the 60% at 1 year against the full original list 350z gt at 32 and you have 19.2 at 12mths.. the resale market will see the new 370's, understand that dealers offloaded quite a lot of 350 stock at a reduced price and rip another 30% of the year 1 residual off at year 2 taking the 2 year old 350gt down to around 13k... Also as the 370 hits the streets in Japan there will probably be more bargain 350's to import which will gnaw at the used prices even more... My last car was a 2007 56 plate z4mcoupe.. you can now pick up an 2007 56 plate,15k miles, top spec valued at 47k for 22 from a main dealer... again it is a current model and running at 47% at 2 years.. if you apply that logic to a 32k 350 then best you could hope for was 15.. but that doesn't include new model disease and it will strike as soon as the fist 12mth old batch of 370z's hit the forecourts at 20k... I think i will buy 2 cars next time.. a slagheap for daily use like an 80's landie 90 and a nice bit of old exotica for weekends that isn't going to depreciate too much like a decent 90's 993 turbo or if i want an electrical hobby something Italian from the late 90's.. grim reading.. sorry... just think there are some unrealstic views on future values for the Z's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martinmac Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 If prices come down any more I am going to buy another one and keep it standard as a daily driver. I just keep watching and cant believe they are still dropping so fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarnie Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 IMHO I think 15 - 16 in 2 years is optimistic... i think it iwll be more like 11 - 13 best. don't hate me for that judgement on numbers... i have been depressing the cr4p out of my wife as she is looking to replace her 3 year old strudelpanzer ML Merc AMG monster so we have been shopping... at least i have a buyer for the merc but at a huge loss.. she is down 70% on what she paid for it 3 years ago.. but.. 4x4, petrol, group20 insurance, 16 mpg, expensive tyres / repairs / services and now out of warranty so not an attractive proposition to buy .. so she expected it to be painful... just not as much as it will be... But.. i'm not looking at 4x4's to replace it.. best cars we have been offered so far are - 9mth old red m3 coupe with carbon roof panel, 8k miles, dealer car, 2yr 3mth warranty, top spec cost at 55k... 31k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (not the SMG) 12mth old black 730d sport, 20inch upgrade alloys, 19k miles, dbl glazed !, electric sunblinds in rear, sunroof, top hifi + rear dvd screens, satnav, bt, cream leather trim. 2yr warranty, 26k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (this costed out at 68k new...) 10 mth old gunmetal Jag xk8 4.2. satnav, top hifi etc, 18k, 2year warranty, 12mths tax and tank "o" gas - forecourt stickered at 40.. salesman hinted 33 cash and i could have it. (think this was around 55 new) Obviously the 7 has been repalced so is suffering new model disease but the estate agent express and the handbag are current models. But if you look at the % depreciations above then the m3 is selling at 60% at <1year... the 7 is selling at 34% (yikes) at 1 year and the jag is also at 60% at <1year.. If you take the 60% at 1 year against the full original list 350z gt at 32 and you have 19.2 at 12mths.. the resale market will see the new 370's, understand that dealers offloaded quite a lot of 350 stock at a reduced price and rip another 30% of the year 1 residual off at year 2 taking the 2 year old 350gt down to around 13k... Also as the 370 hits the streets in Japan there will probably be more bargain 350's to import which will gnaw at the used prices even more... My last car was a 2007 56 plate z4mcoupe.. you can now pick up an 2007 56 plate,15k miles, top spec valued at 47k for 22 from a main dealer... again it is a current model and running at 47% at 2 years.. if you apply that logic to a 32k 350 then best you could hope for was 15.. but that doesn't include new model disease and it will strike as soon as the fist 12mth old batch of 370z's hit the forecourts at 20k... I think i will buy 2 cars next time.. a slagheap for daily use like an 80's landie 90 and a nice bit of old exotica for weekends that isn't going to depreciate too much like a decent 90's 993 turbo or if i want an electrical hobby something Italian from the late 90's.. grim reading.. sorry... just think there are some unrealstic views on future values for the Z's... grim reading but as you say, realistic. The best place for your money in a car right now is a ferrari 355, they about the only car not suffering from plummeting prices. Buy a good one for about £38k and you'll not lose a lot at all. Buy a german mass made car and you'll haemhorage money like theres no tomorrow................ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbs Posted January 7, 2009 Author Share Posted January 7, 2009 IMHO I think 15 - 16 in 2 years is optimistic... i think it iwll be more like 11 - 13 best. don't hate me for that judgement on numbers... i have been depressing the cr4p out of my wife as she is looking to replace her 3 year old strudelpanzer ML Merc AMG monster so we have been shopping... at least i have a buyer for the merc but at a huge loss.. she is down 70% on what she paid for it 3 years ago.. but.. 4x4, petrol, group20 insurance, 16 mpg, expensive tyres / repairs / services and now out of warranty so not an attractive proposition to buy .. so she expected it to be painful... just not as much as it will be... But.. i'm not looking at 4x4's to replace it.. best cars we have been offered so far are - 9mth old red m3 coupe with carbon roof panel, 8k miles, dealer car, 2yr 3mth warranty, top spec cost at 55k... 31k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (not the SMG) 12mth old black 730d sport, 20inch upgrade alloys, 19k miles, dbl glazed !, electric sunblinds in rear, sunroof, top hifi + rear dvd screens, satnav, bt, cream leather trim. 2yr warranty, 26k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (this costed out at 68k new...) 10 mth old gunmetal Jag xk8 4.2. satnav, top hifi etc, 18k, 2year warranty, 12mths tax and tank "o" gas - forecourt stickered at 40.. salesman hinted 33 cash and i could have it. (think this was around 55 new) Obviously the 7 has been repalced so is suffering new model disease but the estate agent express and the handbag are current models. But if you look at the % depreciations above then the m3 is selling at 60% at <1year... the 7 is selling at 34% (yikes) at 1 year and the jag is also at 60% at <1year.. If you take the 60% at 1 year against the full original list 350z gt at 32 and you have 19.2 at 12mths.. the resale market will see the new 370's, understand that dealers offloaded quite a lot of 350 stock at a reduced price and rip another 30% of the year 1 residual off at year 2 taking the 2 year old 350gt down to around 13k... Also as the 370 hits the streets in Japan there will probably be more bargain 350's to import which will gnaw at the used prices even more... My last car was a 2007 56 plate z4mcoupe.. you can now pick up an 2007 56 plate,15k miles, top spec valued at 47k for 22 from a main dealer... again it is a current model and running at 47% at 2 years.. if you apply that logic to a 32k 350 then best you could hope for was 15.. but that doesn't include new model disease and it will strike as soon as the fist 12mth old batch of 370z's hit the forecourts at 20k... I think i will buy 2 cars next time.. a slagheap for daily use like an 80's landie 90 and a nice bit of old exotica for weekends that isn't going to depreciate too much like a decent 90's 993 turbo or if i want an electrical hobby something Italian from the late 90's.. grim reading.. sorry... just think there are some unrealstic views on future values for the Z's... grim reading but as you say, realistic. The best place for your money in a car right now is a ferrari 355, they about the only car not suffering from plummeting prices. Buy a good one for about £38k and you'll not lose a lot at all. Buy a german mass made car and you'll haemhorage money like theres no tomorrow................ I understand your figures in todays market but I think you're missing my point, this massive drop in price has already happened so you're starting from a lower base point and if there is (big if) a pick up in the economy over the next two years maybe with the huge drop todate prices may start getting back to something like they were 12 months ago,i.e a two year old zed was worth £20k 12 months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manc350z Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Yeah.. i like f355's... you need to employ a personal auto electrician and cambelt / servcing expert to keep them on the road.. but it's be worth it.. My mate had a Maserati 3200 and it had the Ferrari engine.. cambelt service was 6 GRAND !!!! Diy probably about 1.5k + 50 hours labour.. a lot of crying and an awful moment when you first restart the engine when you think.. was that actually set at top dead centre..... i Hmmm... not missing your point just think that the 370z factor, more 350 imports and Uk economic climate likely to linger untill end 2k9 early 2k10... so these factors will probably see off any retail car price recovery... add to that fuel prices will increase, (and 350's aren't known to be too good on the old MPG front), as will insurance because this cold spell is producing lots of car isurance claims ! So anything more exotic than a ford shopping appliance or a vauxhall kiddy carrier should continue to plunge through mid 2k10... Yep it has taken a drop from the dealers at 20k but those cars at 20 just wiped '000's off everybody else's cars.. mine included as i only got my 2k7 07 plate in september before grim car drops kicked in properly... cars very rarely go back up once they have taken a hit.. I had a Z3m coupe , 99 on the T plate that took a 4k hit overnight in 2000 because dealers reduced them from 42k to 38k.. it never recovered and that was during a good period of economic growth.. Like the 350 they were a respected piece of metal and they were as rare as rocking horse. I would aim low on residuals and be surprised if that is not the case.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarnie Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 IMHO I think 15 - 16 in 2 years is optimistic... i think it iwll be more like 11 - 13 best. don't hate me for that judgement on numbers... i have been depressing the cr4p out of my wife as she is looking to replace her 3 year old strudelpanzer ML Merc AMG monster so we have been shopping... at least i have a buyer for the merc but at a huge loss.. she is down 70% on what she paid for it 3 years ago.. but.. 4x4, petrol, group20 insurance, 16 mpg, expensive tyres / repairs / services and now out of warranty so not an attractive proposition to buy .. so she expected it to be painful... just not as much as it will be... But.. i'm not looking at 4x4's to replace it.. best cars we have been offered so far are - 9mth old red m3 coupe with carbon roof panel, 8k miles, dealer car, 2yr 3mth warranty, top spec cost at 55k... 31k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (not the SMG) 12mth old black 730d sport, 20inch upgrade alloys, 19k miles, dbl glazed !, electric sunblinds in rear, sunroof, top hifi + rear dvd screens, satnav, bt, cream leather trim. 2yr warranty, 26k cash with 12mths ticket, full showroom valet and tank of fuel.... (this costed out at 68k new...) 10 mth old gunmetal Jag xk8 4.2. satnav, top hifi etc, 18k, 2year warranty, 12mths tax and tank "o" gas - forecourt stickered at 40.. salesman hinted 33 cash and i could have it. (think this was around 55 new) Obviously the 7 has been repalced so is suffering new model disease but the estate agent express and the handbag are current models. But if you look at the % depreciations above then the m3 is selling at 60% at <1year... the 7 is selling at 34% (yikes) at 1 year and the jag is also at 60% at <1year.. If you take the 60% at 1 year against the full original list 350z gt at 32 and you have 19.2 at 12mths.. the resale market will see the new 370's, understand that dealers offloaded quite a lot of 350 stock at a reduced price and rip another 30% of the year 1 residual off at year 2 taking the 2 year old 350gt down to around 13k... Also as the 370 hits the streets in Japan there will probably be more bargain 350's to import which will gnaw at the used prices even more... My last car was a 2007 56 plate z4mcoupe.. you can now pick up an 2007 56 plate,15k miles, top spec valued at 47k for 22 from a main dealer... again it is a current model and running at 47% at 2 years.. if you apply that logic to a 32k 350 then best you could hope for was 15.. but that doesn't include new model disease and it will strike as soon as the fist 12mth old batch of 370z's hit the forecourts at 20k... I think i will buy 2 cars next time.. a slagheap for daily use like an 80's landie 90 and a nice bit of old exotica for weekends that isn't going to depreciate too much like a decent 90's 993 turbo or if i want an electrical hobby something Italian from the late 90's.. grim reading.. sorry... just think there are some unrealstic views on future values for the Z's... grim reading but as you say, realistic. The best place for your money in a car right now is a ferrari 355, they about the only car not suffering from plummeting prices. Buy a good one for about £38k and you'll not lose a lot at all. Buy a german mass made car and you'll haemhorage money like theres no tomorrow................ I understand your figures in todays market but I think you're missing my point, this massive drop in price has already happened so you're starting from a lower base point and if there is (big if) a pick up in the economy over the next two years maybe with the huge drop todate prices may start getting back to something like they were 12 months ago,i.e a two year old zed was worth £20k 12 months ago. Never gonna happen. I can understand your thinking though. i bought my UY zed for £25k when it was 5 weeks old, the original owner paid £32k so he took the initial £7k depreciation hit. i ran it for a year did 20k in it and still sold it for £25k. That was obviously in much better economic market conditions. I don't see the point in buying a car inbetween your current car and the 370z. your gonna take the hit on sale of your current zed, will pay extra towards the new zed, will lose on sale of that and then will have to add money to purchase the 370z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H5 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 I think there is some truth is what everyone has said, but I think there will only be pockets of 'recovery'. I've spoken with family in the motor industry about this sort of thing quite a lot recently, and one thing that keeps coming up is that in the next few years we will have a used car 'shortage'. With fatories being shut / reduced hours / extended holidays, there just aren't the cars being produced. So there will ultimately be less 08 / 58 / 09 cars put on the road so when people come to want a '3 year old sports car' their choice will be limited and they may well have to pay more to get what they want. Does the Zed fall into that category? Quite possibly. It's nowhere near as common as the M3 and some of the other cars listed above, but who knows. Either way, I believe there will be some sort of recovery - supply and demand rules don't change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsy Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 I think the answer is that you would have to be an optimist and a gambler to go ahead with the scheme you're proposing, MBS. Do you really want a new one that much if its only a weekend car? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuck Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 The way I see things (sweeping generalisation coming up, sorry if anyone is offended!) if you want to put money into something and not lose out, try a bank account. You are going to lose money on 99.9% of cars that you buy. We don't buy cars because they hold their value well. If we did I bet none of us would have got a Zed. Keeping this on topic if you like your 05 plate, keep it. The general consensus on here is that there isn't much difference betweent he 278 and the 313 engines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsy Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 The general consensus on here is that there isn't much difference betweent he 278 and the 313 engines. I disagree. The 313 is a far superior engine in every respect. Its the rest of the upgrades that aren't worth diddly squat IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maccaman Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 The other problem is the 350 is going out of production. That means the upgraded models at increased price will no longer be happening & this normally helps to maintain the resale value of the older models. Got to agree with holding out until you want the 370z or other car that is on the market then. If you were thinking of a new 350z, which you then were going to run for 4/5 years, I don't think that would be a bad alternative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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