Br-ex-ilection 2019

[formatzero]

On 14/11/2019 at 16:30, coldel said:

I do think Scottish independence is inevitable. Boris will win now that Farage is out the picture in 60 odd constituencies so a free run at it. 

 

I'm in Richmond which gives me the option of Lib Dems (I don't agree with unilateral reversal of Brexit) or the Tories (Zac bloody Goldsmith who is a despisable human being and I dont agree with how Boris is trying his best at forcing a no deal brexit, his inherent racism and his ties with scum like JRM). 

I don't think Scottish independence is inevitable, they have too many unanswered questions to deal with before any logical Scot would vote for it.

 

[Stutopia]

1 hour ago, formatzero said:

I don't think Scottish independence is inevitable, they have too many unanswered questions to deal with before any logical Scot would vote for it.

 

Logic seems to be in short supply.

[Kev T]

I wonder if the Scots realise that if they gain  independance from Britain they lose all  English taxpayers money that props up their free social services !

[Irn Bru]

Kev T, do some proper research before commenting ..........please 

[Kev T]

In brief

Claim

Scotland gets 20% more per head because of money that comes from England under the Barnett formula.

Conclusion

It’s correct that spending on public services in Scotland is 20% higher per head than in England. But this money comes from the block grant from the UK Treasury, rather than from England specifically. An increasing proportion of the Scottish government’s budget also comes from taxes it raises.

[Irn Bru]

Again, do your research. Scotland contributes far more to the uk treasury than it gets back in the block grant. How we choose to spend that is up to us. 

[Irn Bru]

Economics of Independence • Scotland's Economy

Where does Scotland’s wealth go?

6 years ago

120 Comments

by Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Written by Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Where does Scotland’s wealth go (if it doesn’t stay here)?

Click to enlarge

It’s a simple question but not one often asked, probably as most economics bloggers like myself get bogged down in numbers and over-complicate the issue.

Data from the UK Government’s Office for National Statistics demonstrates in simple terms the distribution of personal wealth in the UK.  It is clear to see that London and the south are by far the wealthiest parts of the UK.  Not just the south east but the South West as well.

Clearly the further north you go the lower the distribution of wealthy households and this matches other research that shows overall lower average household wealth, and lower the average household income in the north.

The map of wealthy household distribution shows a clear north/south wealth divide within England itself, which many of us knew about, but many will be surprised at just how far south the divide sits.  Without over complicating the issue this data when taken with all other wealth and income statistics that look at wealth/income distribution within the UK confirms that wealth is centralised around London.  The more northern areas of the UK have suffered years of de-industrialisation, high unemployment and lower investment that followed the emergence of London-centric finance and service-led economic policy under consecutive Conservative and New Labour governments.

No surprises there then!  However, when you compare the map of where the wealth ends up with a map of where the UK’s wealth is generated, they don’t tell the same story.  The union drains wealth from Scotland.

Click to enlarge

The second map (Eurostat Regional GDP per capita) shows clearly that, in terms of wealth per head, the Scottish central belt generates as much wealth as much of London and the South. Also Scotland’s north east is (perhaps not surprisingly) one of the best performing economic areas in the UK.  Now look again at the first map and ask yourself, “why doesn’t Scotland’s wealth stay in Scotland”?

It becomes clear that we are only better together if you believe that London is entitled to the lion’s share of Scotland’s wealth.  The Jimmy Reid Foundation, a new and increasingly well respected think-tank, published a report in June 2013 demonstrating this wealth drain and the resulting under-performance of Scotland’s economy.  It highlighted that Scotland’s economy would be 25% larger than it is today in the absence of the historic and present union wealth drain.

A month earlier, I made the same point on this blog when I wrote about Scotland’s economy going south.

It is an accepted fact that every year for 30 years Scotland has generated more tax revenue per head for the UK treasury than the rest of the UK.  The latest figures taken from the Government Expenditure and Revenue Report Scotland (GERS) state that Scotland generated £800 more in tax per person than the UK average.  Scotland would have been £8.3 billion better off than the UK over the past 5 years.

Put simply, when the UK runs a surplus Scotland contributes more to the surplus, and when the UK runs a deficit Scotland has to pay more of the debt back than it is responsible for.  It’s a “lose/lose” situation for Scottish tax payers and especially for those in need of support from the state.

Often attributed to Aristotle:

You can judge a nation by the way it treats its most vulnerable citizens.

Instead of understanding and reacting to the root cause of the problem we now have a culture of scapegoating the poor, unemployed, disabled, infirm and especially immigrants rising to the top of a political agenda which is dominated by the London and south of England establishment.

So let’s consider three key vulnerable groups that the Scottish Government could help if we did not give away so much of our budget every year around £4.1bn drained away on debt interest last year year alone!

1) The poor
Whilst according to The Times, 1 in 29 Londoners are dollar millionaires, 29% of Scots live in fuel poverty according to the latest research.

2) Children
In some areas in Scotland more than 1 in 3 children grow up in poverty (1 in 5 across the nation as a whole).  The charity ‘Child Poverty in Scotland’ says that with Scotland’s undoubted wealth, this statistic is a scandal. There is no reason why our child poverty rates should be so much higher than many other European countries.  In Denmark and Norway less than 10% of children live in poverty.

Click to enlarge

3) Old people

According the UK Life Expectancy figures (see 3rd map), the impact of the unfair distribution of wealth under the Union combined with unemployment caused by deindustrialisation means that people who live in Scotland are dying earlier than those from the wealthiest parts of the UK.

For example, the male life expectancy in Scotland is 75 versus 79 in the English south east. Possibly more worryingly healthy life expectancy in Scotland is only 59.5 years.

This causes two big problems. First, health care costs in Scotland become higher than the rest of the UK and secondly Scots who pay the same percentage of their wages towards pensions all their working lives will get up to six years less pension.

So as well as subsidising the rest of the UK during their working lives they do so again in death.

Because people are living far longer in the heavily populated south east of England, the state pension age is already due to increase to 67 by 2028 and future rises in the state pension age would remain linked to improvements in life expectancy.  Asking your average Scottish man or woman to work seven years longer than his healthily life expectancy is asking a bit much.

Indeed, last year, the charity director of Age UK, Michelle Mitchell said:

“We would not support an automatic increase linked to average life expectancy as there are huge disparities in life expectancy across the country and between different groups.”

But it is happening anyway!

Note:  There are only three small areas of the UK where the average person is expected to live over 82 years(dark green on the map), they are Kensington, Westminster and Chelsea.

Conclusion

David Cameron is fond of saying that we are STRONGER, SAFER, RICHER, and FAIRER … TOGETHER.

But clearly that’s only if you live outside Scotland and particularly if you are from the South of England!  Scotland itself is clearly weaker, less safe, poorer, and less fair as part of the Union.

How does a political and economic system that drains billions in revenues from Scotland and leaves the poor unable to heat their homes make us better together?  The current Westminster system leaves many Scots children in poverty and growing up in a culture of hopelessness. It leaves our nation’s families comparatively poorer despite the fact that we generate more tax revenue per head that the rest of the UK.

How can anyone justly claim that is worth fighting for? But then maybe that is why the No camp does not actually campaign on the economic and social record of the Westminster system but rather campaign against independence and, by extension, against the hopes and aspirations of those of us that see independence not as an end in itself but a means to an end whereby we build a stronger, safer, richer, fairer and all round better Scotland.

We can build a Scotland which gets the best of both worlds from remaining in partnership with our friends across the British Isles in areas where we share mutual interests, but most importantly being able to shape our own economic future and maximise our own resources to benefit more Scots today and in generations to come through self-government.

[evilscorp]

I live in the west coast, people die young, kids grow up poor (missus is a teacher and 1 in 3 sounds optimistic, probably a lot worse than that.)

At the same time I am fortunate enough to work in one of the large businesses in the area and know the tax revenue the government must make is huge.

I am quite happy and glad to pay more in tax than someone doing the same job south of the border if the money can be spent locally to improve people’s lives.

This is a reason we can spend more on public services;

Scotland

£12,500 to £14,549 19%

£14,549 to £24,944 20%

£24,944 to £43,430 21%

£43,430 to £150,000 41%

£150,000 46%

Rest of UK
£11,850 and £46,350 - 20%

£46,351 and £150,000 - 40%

£150,001 - 45% income tax

The median, or typical, gross salary in Scotland for all employees as of April 2017 was £23,150. This is just below the UK wide figure of £23,474. Broken down by region, it remains the highest outside London and the south-east - but is still lower than the overall England figure.

**(Attmitally this last info was taken from the Scotsman newspaper so like everything you read, it may be complete boll~*cks.)

Edited November 18, 2019 by evilscorp

[evilscorp]

Feel like I am talking myself into indy ref2 lol, when I would have prefered things to have stayed the same before brexit trashed everything. (fingers crossed for the lib dems kiss and make up with europe.)

[coldel]

Polling card came through, reminder that this is incoming. Utterly awful options here in Richmond:

 

Zac Goldsmith Tory, racist over-privileged nasty piece of work who is straight out of the Tory 'create a puppet' mould

Sarah Olney LibDem, token inexperienced but enthusiastic candidate most genuine person of the four, but I do not agree with unilaterally cancelling brexit so struggle with this somewhat

Sandra Keen Lab, well whats the point around here complete waste of a vote

Caroline Shah, Ind, concerned about development in neighbouring Kingston, okaaaaay glad you got your priorities lined up

 

I cannot bring myself to vote Tory due to the double whammy of Zac and Boris two of the most descpicable racist xenophobic people in Westminster, so left effectively with a protest vote or LIb Dems *sigh*

[ATTAK Z]

I feel your pain Col !

[coldel]

I honestly don't think I can remember a vote of any sort where I really had nowhere to naturally gravitate towards - this country really is an utter sheet show at the moment. 

Edited November 19, 2019 by coldel

[Ekona]

Ironically if Corbyn could hold off from his magic money tree giveaways which are just nonsense, I could be persuaded to vote for Labour again. He’d have to ditch Abbott first though, and McDonnell too really. 
 

As it stands, and for the way Boris has tried to bring Brexit to an end at long last, I’ll be voting Tory. Tbh all the other guff about taxes and the NHS and education and whatever means nothing to me really this time around, it’s all about getting out of the EU now for me personally. 

[veeg33]

^^ I'm with Dan on this, voting Tory to get Brexit done and dusted. Also not keen with Corbyn for PM.

[coldel]

I do have principle issues around Boris, and this notion that people think he is 'getting it done' - the fact that he was not so long ago very much part of parliament preventing a deal being done, that he signed off on the backstop when creating the deal then opposed it when it came to the vote. That he said he would never create or present a deal (and nor should any Tory government) that has a customs border in the Irish Sea - he used all of that rhetoric to first of all ditch the incumbent PM and get the place himself. All that wasn't about getting Brexit done, that was a power hungry ego driven person without any thought for how those actions might affect the people that live in this country. A racist xenophobe with little regard for anyones welfare aside from his own, multiple love children, cheats on his wife and family, gives favours out to business women in return for a night bumping around under the covers. The guy is so corrupt both politically and morally, he is a disgusting human being and I cannot vote for such a twisted individual. I would rather we sort the deal out properly than let this puppet of the ERG throw us to the dogs in a no deal scenario 'just to get it done' 

 

/endrant!

[Ekona]

But how do you really feel?  

 

Tbh i can forgive him most of his obvious character faults, and what he does in his personal life is none of my business. If he can get things done and be forward about what he wants, then that’s enough for me. It’s Corbyn’s biggest flaw, his lack of direction and leadership: He still hasn’t got a grip on anti-semitism in his party, which is equally as bad as any racist overtones that Boris may show. 

[coldel]

Oh I agree, we have polar opposites in Boris and Corbyn, one a racist ego maniac who is taking the easy way out of Brexit because all the bluster of 'going back and doing a deal' that he threw about was just making stuff up. Corbyn exactly the same but on the other end of the scale. Both could just do what Boris is doing and just put no effort in to Brexit, and just take a bit of a punt on if no deal will work or not (and its not his problem, he is wealthy enough not to worry) I would rather have a proper leader who will take this by the scruff of the neck and do a deal properly without backstabbers like Boris leeching around basically doing whatever he needs to to have that power of PM - I still cant get my head around how people think Boris is getting it done, he has spent the last three years obstructing any sort of deal to get his own PM fired. The mind boggles.

 

Watched the 4th series of Thick of It yesterday, so reminded me of what was going on right now.

Edited November 19, 2019 by coldel

[Payco]

I am on the same page as Col. I might add Father Christmas to my card and vote for him

[The G Man]

If Boris Johnson can and is capable to do all of the things and more that coldel mentions (only a snippet of his capabilities) to the people you would think that he most cares about, just think and reflect on what he would do to anyone he doesn’t know, all of the rest of us.

 

i set out in my other post on this thread, Corbyn, being unelectable, is the problem, foisted on those who would like an alternative to the hedge fund management that a future Tory government will bring.

 

Letting Momentum take over the Labour Party, has I’m afraid, led us into a brand of socialism that looks likely, from the Tories, that in any other time, may have had the prefix National.  

 

Johnson is a scary wee man, with a nose longer than Pinocchio and having his strings pulled by landed, self proclaimed privileged gentry. 

[evilscorp]

My predictions are;

Boris in, Brexit his way, Ireland becoming one after many firebombs and shootings, Scotland fu# off and get stuck in limbo trying to get back in the EU on the same setup they had before.

[ATTAK Z]

1 hour ago, evilscorp said:

My predictions are;

Boris in, Brexit his way, Ireland becoming one after many firebombs and shootings, Scotland fu# off and get stuck in limbo trying to get back in the EU on the same setup they had before.

Not all doom and gloom then ?

[Stutopia]

9 hours ago, coldel said:

I do have principle issues around Boris, and this notion that people think he is 'getting it done' - the fact that he was not so long ago very much part of parliament preventing a deal being done, that he signed off on the backstop when creating the deal then opposed it when it came to the vote. That he said he would never create or present a deal (and nor should any Tory government) that has a customs border in the Irish Sea - he used all of that rhetoric to first of all ditch the incumbent PM and get the place himself. All that wasn't about getting Brexit done, that was a power hungry ego driven person without any thought for how those actions might affect the people that live in this country. A racist xenophobe with little regard for anyones welfare aside from his own, multiple love children, cheats on his wife and family, gives favours out to business women in return for a night bumping around under the covers. The guy is so corrupt both politically and morally, he is a disgusting human being and I cannot vote for such a twisted individual. I would rather we sort the deal out properly than let this puppet of the ERG throw us to the dogs in a no deal scenario 'just to get it done' 

 

/endrant!

He’ll literally say anything to anyone at anytime.

 

Unless you ask how many kids he’s got.

[coldel]

9 hours ago, SuperStu said:

He’ll literally say anything to anyone at anytime.

 

Unless you ask how many kids he’s got.

 

Well given earlier in the year he said he would never endorse an Irish Sea customs border to solve the backstop, nor should any Tory government and yet here we are with him having done exactly that, given that, would you trust him? I get Dan is going on the brexit vote only, but there are much more damaging repercussions to come in my opinion that will be difficult or impossible to reverse once we finally get a leader in that gives a toss about anyone...

 

...and lets not forget the fake fact check twitter account they set up last night 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by coldel

[Umster]

36 minutes ago, coldel said:

 

...and lets not forget the fake fact check twitter account they set up last night 

 

 

 

Fake news. . . 

[docwra]

31 minutes ago, Umster said:

 

Fake news. . . 

I like to call it "lying", and as Col has nicely detailed up there it seems to be the currency for the Tories at the moment, see also doctoring videos and being in contempt of parliament. 

On that basis alone I dont think I could vote for them, their lack of respect for the voter is horrififying and I think if we have 4 years of it there will be no respect left for politics or politicians in this country at all.