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Brexit again


Jetpilot

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On 26/02/2019 at 13:07, Jetpilot said:

:lol: The Eu even has rules over pallets, thanks for reminding me how utterly farcical they are :thumbs:

Of course they do and had the UK not been in the EU we would have had them too - no way can you export to Australia / NZ etc without using the correctly treated pallets. Why do you think they spray the planes, ships etc before they enter those countries and you are banned from taking foodstuffs, plants, seeds, wooden objects etc.

Its only an EU wide rule because we are in the EU and is far from farcical.

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15 hours ago, The G Man said:

 

 

Can you tell me how I’ll be better off, Brexiting?   It’ll be a first 

 

I am still waiting for someone to convince me. Am open minded but have not heard a good arguement for it yet - all I hear is that we will be better off. How exactly?

I work in the science sector. This is one of the UK's greatest assets. Over the last few years quite a few science parks have been established around the UK bringing the greatest of minds together. How were these funded - partly by the EU. Loads of the research work done in the UK is EU funded. Lots of people mention what gets paid out to the EU but don't realise how much comes back.

Loads of regeneration in Wales was EU funded and led by EU initiatives - but Wales voted out, wtf!

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39 minutes ago, Ponsonby said:

I am still waiting for someone to convince me. Am open minded but have not heard a good arguement for it yet - all I hear is that we will be better off. How exactly?

I work in the science sector. This is one of the UK's greatest assets. Over the last few years quite a few science parks have been established around the UK bringing the greatest of minds together. How were these funded - partly by the EU. Loads of the research work done in the UK is EU funded. Lots of people mention what gets paid out to the EU but don't realise how much comes back.

Loads of regeneration in Wales was EU funded and led by EU initiatives - but Wales voted out, wtf!

The problem you have, is that you expect people will actually think about how things work and try and research and understand how leaving or staying will impact their career, personal life and the economy as a whole. So until you start consuming Facebook and Twitter sound bites as your only news, and focus on what Sputnik and RT says, you're really not objective and are just regurgitating all the brainwashing propaganda by the pro EU radical left, which wants to open the borders and destroy our gorgeous country with immigrants from EU who only come here to steal our money, jobs, women and our babies. Oh and destroying the fisheries and NHS...that's also high on the agenda of the foreign invaders.

 

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Can politicians stop bloody bickering and points scoring for their own career progress and get this stupid moronic notion of 'no-deal might be alright' off the table. How many times do we have to hear from companies that a no-deal would make their business model more expensive before parliament will actually pull its head out the sand and actively do something https://news.sky.com/story/bmw-may-shift-mini-and-engine-work-from-uk-in-no-deal-brexit-11655739 my fear is that the ERG have the government so far in their pockets we are stuck on this suicidal course.

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22 hours ago, coldel said:

Can politicians stop bloody bickering and points scoring for their own career progress and get this stupid moronic notion of 'no-deal might be alright' off the table. How many times do we have to hear from companies that a no-deal would make their business model more expensive before parliament will actually pull its head out the sand and actively do something https://news.sky.com/story/bmw-may-shift-mini-and-engine-work-from-uk-in-no-deal-brexit-11655739 my fear is that the ERG have the government so far in their pockets we are stuck on this suicidal course.

Personally i think the "threat" of no deal is our single biggest leverage, no one wants a no deal and whilst its on the table we may actually have "some" negotiating power and whether its point scoring or career progression i personally think the most damaging thing is politicians tabling amendments for extensions or another referendum, it simply plays into the Eu's hands.

 

82% of the population voted for party manifestos that were pro Brexit, parliament voted by a majority of 384 to sign article 50 which meant leaving the Eu this month.

 

 

Edited by Jetpilot
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44 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

Personally i think the "threat" of no deal is our single biggest leverage, no one wants a no deal and whilst its on the table we may actually have "some" negotiating power and whether its point scoring or career progression i personally think the most damaging thing is politicians tabling amendments for extensions or another referendum, it simply plays into the Eu's hands.

 

82% of the population voted for party manifestos that were pro Brexit, parliament voted by a majority of 384 to sign article 50 which meant leaving the Eu this month.

 

 

I would disagree (of course :p) there is a train of thought that says its leverage but it isn't. There is no way the EU will cave in at this stage with a no-deal on the horizon, we have literally a couple of weeks to go and they are ready for it. Its a fallacy that this has any value to us. This will affect 100% of our economy, it will affect a fraction of the EU's. In the meantime the UK economy suffers ongoing damage, key industries are being torn up, jobs are being risked/lost and we are literally weeks from prices being hiked up across multiple industries due to the operational cost of being sat on an island which is heavily reliant on stuff coming over to us. IMHO.

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30 minutes ago, coldel said:

I would disagree (of course :p) there is a train of thought that says its leverage but it isn't. There is no way the EU will cave in at this stage with a no-deal on the horizon, we have literally a couple of weeks to go and they are ready for it. Its a fallacy that this has any value to us. This will affect 100% of our economy, it will affect a fraction of the EU's. In the meantime the UK economy suffers ongoing damage, key industries are being torn up, jobs are being risked/lost and we are literally weeks from prices being hiked up across multiple industries due to the operational cost of being sat on an island which is heavily reliant on stuff coming over to us. IMHO.

then we can enjoy all that happening and leavers claiming Brexit had nothing to do with it, was going to happen anyway

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13 hours ago, ilogikal1 said:

Yay for the Daily Mail; Oh shock, massively overpriced houses fail to sell - must be Brexit then!!

 

Good luck to the guy trying to sell multiple overpriced flats instead of fewer overpriced houses that haven’t sold... :doh:

Well there was a moral to the "story", which you got perfectly ;), for anyone else who missed it, dont believe everything you read :)

 

I worked for that dude for a year and half on a number of his multi million pound projects and his own 3.2 million house and subsequently know him well, he is pretty good guy, apart from being greedy as f***. 3/4 of the way through that build he had some interest from a well known national developer wanting to buy all houses on completion for full asking price, he is not stupid and realised the potential for building flats, so he took a punt and advertised them way over market knowing all along he was going to go for planning for flats, this was all decided way before Brexit (which incidentally he voted out) and all this is smoke and mirrors to try and swing the council in favour of granting planning .

 

The reality is he doesnt care if he sells them or not, his lifestyle is mainly funded from borrowed money to build property which he takes huge chunks out of as "wages", his garage was an impressive sight, 458 spider, 911 turbo s, v12 dbs and just as i stopped working for him he took delivery of an Aston Martin  Vanquish Zagato, does anyone really think he cares about Brexit.

 

My black and white view on the world is, if Nissan, Honda, Dyson etc etc are all upping sticks because of Brexit, why arent they just saying, its because of Brexit, why list a plethora of other factors, what difference does it make to them if they say, its purely down to Brexit, surely thats a far better way of making the government think, oh perhaps this isnt so good.

 

 

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We need to be clear here, no one is saying companies are up sticks and leaving just because of the brexit process. But it is undeniable that brexit and especially a no-deal brexit is a factor. Making a call like closing factories/laying off workers is a huge decision, not only financially but ethically (believe it or not lots of CEOs do appreciate the human factor) and is not a decision taken lightly. It unlikely a decision of magnitude is made on one thing, but one thing can easily be the reason to swing a decision one way or the other.

 

This is what Ford said to the UK government about 3 weeks ago for example about a no-deal brexit which MPs like the ERG group are wanting, it speaks for itself:

“Such a situation would be catastrophic for the UK auto industry and Ford’s manufacturing operations in the country,”

“We will take whatever action is necessary to preserve the competitiveness of our European business.”

 

In a few weeks we could be out the EU, with no deal, and no other deals in with other countries in place. In terms of business planning that is a dreadful place to be, if threats like Fords are carried out then tens of thousands of jobs could go and we could easily slide into recession. This is being glossed over by MPs all jostling for points scoring, its quite disgusting really. 

Edited by coldel
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1 hour ago, coldel said:

no one is saying companies are up sticks and leaving just because of the brexit process.

 

This is being glossed over by MPs all jostling for points scoring, its quite disgusting really. 

I think a lot of people are saying its because of Brexit on here, you can see that by the usual propaganda links being posted and "clever" comments even on this very page ;)

 

So do you honestly believe that if Brexit wasnt happening (even though we are not sure it is) which even Nissan, Honda, Dyson etc arent sure yet they would change their minds and stay? Hell they might even have that opportunity if it doesnt happen and willing to bet anything on that they wont!

 

When a company comes out and says, its because of Brexit plain and simple, feel free to say i told you so, funnily enough i expect a few too and simply am not worried, we have been through plenty of recessions even being part of the EU, its irrelevant. I wonder what the remainers will say if it isnt the "forecasted" doom and gloom. 

 

So what should the mp's do, ignore their manifestos, ignore they all (pretty much) voted for article 50, ignore the referendum or vote for some half baked deal that keeps us locked to the Eu?

 

 

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If us leaving the EU was the cause then these companies would be moving to EU countries they're not all of the Japanese companies are returning to Japan, partly due to the fact EU sales are dipping and partly due to the coming trade deal between Japan and the EU meaning there's little point to having EU production for models reducing in volume. Yes we'll need to come up with our own trade deal but ultimately they're moving due to the fact market conditions have meant ANY EU production isn't sensible anymore.

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7 minutes ago, Ekona said:

Yes, it absolutely would. Maybe not all, as the sensible ones will have already started making plans a year ago, but it would certainly stop some jumping ship.

So Nissan, Honda wouldnt go if we sign the deal?

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Why not, your saying "companies" wouldnt be going if the deal was signed, its either to do with Brexit or its not dude and the perfect case scenario for your argument otherwise its completely opened ended that we will never know who stays or goes because of the deal that might get signed in just a matter of weeks, they really couldnt wait a month or two after near enough 2 years of sitting on the fence :lol:

 

I am solidly as said before in here with mdmetal, 2 years  ago Nissan/Honda knew article 50 had been signed so why not leave then or announce leaving then, it seems strangely coincidental to me that as soon as they signed the eu trade deal thats suddenly when they were all off.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

I think a lot of people are saying its because of Brexit on here, you can see that by the usual propaganda links being posted and "clever" comments even on this very page ;)

 

So do you honestly believe that if Brexit wasnt happening (even though we are not sure it is) which even Nissan, Honda, Dyson etc arent sure yet they would change their minds and stay? Hell they might even have that opportunity if it doesnt happen and willing to bet anything on that they wont!

 

When a company comes out and says, its because of Brexit plain and simple, feel free to say i told you so, funnily enough i expect a few too and simply am not worried, we have been through plenty of recessions even being part of the EU, its irrelevant. I wonder what the remainers will say if it isnt the "forecasted" doom and gloom. 

 

So what should the mp's do, ignore their manifestos, ignore they all (pretty much) voted for article 50, ignore the referendum or vote for some half baked deal that keeps us locked to the Eu?

 

 

Like I say, its not THE reason to leave, but it is definitely part of the reason to leave, it is contributing to that decision. Surely its clear any global business has to consider tariffs that will be imposed and working in the UK as part of its business model.

 

Would Japanese car makers who have signed a deal with the EU, which we are soon to no longer be a part of, have possibly considered staying in the UK, of course they would. Why move operations with a cost tens if not hundreds of millions of pounds when the UK would be in the EU. The fact that we are exiting the EU whilst Japan are signing a contract with the EU directly shows that brexit is going to be part of the reason for them to leave the UK. 

 

Sure down the line we can sign a deal with Japan, will it be as good terms as the EU got, nope. Thats the power of economic leverage and why the EU exists. 

 

To clarify, its not the reason, but to deny its part of the reason (when as per the Ford quote) as well as the industry body here saying brexit is a negative for the industry and a no-deal brexit is catastrophic, its not possible to deny its a factor.

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I'm talking about more than just a couple of Jap car companies though, I'm talking about companies from many different fields. It's common sense and obvious they would leave to ensure they keep their business where they have many customers, even if they leave a small base of ops here in the UK.

 

Of course some would leave it until now to say they're leaving, as really they don't want the cost of upping sticks and once again it comes down to the political game of putting pressure on MPs. If they can call their bluff then great, if not then well they need to go anyway.

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You would be surprised how many companies are leaving it late, I work for a large UK retailing group, they have plans internally but have not done anything publicly to date. As soon as its clear what happens next you will see a lot of large corporations executing their plans. The ones we see in the public eye so far are just the first movers.

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20 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

 

 

I am solidly as said before in here with mdmetal, 2 years  ago Nissan/Honda knew article 50 had been signed so why not leave then or announce leaving then, it seems strangely coincidental to me that as soon as they signed the eu trade deal thats suddenly when they were all off.

 

 

As a global business you wouldnt just make a snap decision. You have to plan a number of scenarios, see how the landscape pans out, then execute accordingly. The fact they have signed a deal with the EU shows that us being outside come next month will have counted against us in any decision in terms of where to site production. Their deal means its more advantageous to build in Europe, so off they go.

 

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