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Brexit 23rd June..?


coldel

  

168 members have voted

  1. 1. How are you likely to vote in the upcoming EU referendum

    • Stay
      62
    • Leave
      82
    • Unsure
      18
    • Not going to vote
      6


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There will be a second referendum.

 

Which, as we all know, completely defeats the point of the first referendum and would set a dangerous and destructive precedent!

 

There are plenty of humorous petitions doing the rounds at present - my personal favourite is the one asking to replay the Battle of Hastings! - but, if another referendum happened due to this current pressure, then virtually any voted result could be contested in the future, just because a certain faction in society weren't happy with the original outcome.

 

Good or bad, I hope last Thursday's vote is the only vote on this subject.

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There will be a second referendum.

 

Which, as we all know, completely defeats the point of the first referendum and would set a dangerous and destructive precedent!

 

There are plenty of humorous petitions doing the rounds at present - my personal favourite is the one asking to replay the Battle of Hastings! - but, if another referendum happened due to this current pressure, then virtually any voted result could be contested in the future, just because a certain faction in society weren't happy with the original outcome.

 

Good or bad, I hope last Thursday's vote is the only vote on this subject.

 

I agree we shouldn't vote again, but, if we do vote like this again on another subject we shouldn't be making a constitutional decision based on a swing of 1.8% when 30% of the populous didn't vote at all. I keep hearing that the people voted to leave, but its so marginal if you ran it again on Thursday this week it could in all likelihood show a Remain win. You have to be sure, that is to actually get a reasonable margin with enough people voting - those rules should have been in place before the referendum. To state that you are changing the country constitutionally based on a 1.8% swing is farcial, you wouldn't see that sort of behaviour in any reasonable business, yet we seem happy to accept it when the stakes are so high for a country.

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I'm not saying it should or it shouldn't, just saying it is going to happen.

 

FT is a very influential paper in both politics and financial world, it's on the front page today.

 

Cameroon is in Brussel, there will be more concessions from EU and we will have a re-run based on the new terms.

 

A lot of LEAVE highly prominent figures are also saying this is very possible.

 

Radio and TV journalists and analysts are slowly introducing the concept in the debates.

 

Markets are also seeing this as a huge opportunity and advise investors to buy UK stocks after such a big sell off, making money twice :)

 

Let's see how this unfolds.

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I heard on the radio that the vote was not legally binding and that parliament could ignore the vote. Whilst I voted remain, I feel this would not be wise.

 

We are where we are, I personally don't think it was well thought out campaign from both sides, and bitter and divisive (unnecessarily so). However we need to put in the massive amounts of contingencies and securities (financial/business/trade) to make sure we don't hit rock bottom. We've been stripped of our AAA rating, but that was to be expected, but we need to stabilise ASAP - if we do that then we should avoid a recession - though there was no recession on the cards before Brexit, so that's just more bloody scaremongering. I hate it. All these suppositions and lies.

 

We need to ensure that our financial markets do not tumble (they are our primary big hitter for GDP in this country) - once that is sorted I think everything else will fall into place, commodities market and everything else will follow.

 

The £ was always going to dip, traders don't like instability. However, if we let things go out of control, then we will crash and burn, and it will take a decade to pick up the pieces if not more.

 

So enough bickering between the leave/vote sides, and more unification.

 

 

The only thing I dislike about the leave thing is the apparent undercurrent of xenophobia / racism that has percolated to the surface. Maybe it was always there and this just served as a mechanism by which people could vent their anger - but it does sadden me somewhat to see society be so intolerant. Now it could also be a bit of media skewing too, but irrespective, I've heard from friends who work within communities (police for example) that there is a lot of anger there :( So tragic. I just hope it doesn't multiply and swell out of control.

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The only thing I dislike about the leave thing is the apparent undercurrent of xenophobia / racism that has percolated to the surface. Maybe it was always there and this just served as a mechanism by which people could vent their anger - but it does sadden me somewhat to see society be so intolerant.

Now it could also be a bit of media skewing too, but irrespective, I've heard from friends who work within communities (police for example) that there is a lot of anger there :( So tragic. I just hope it doesn't multiply and swell out of control.

 

I haven't experienced any xenophobia first hand so far while I've been in UK for 15 years on Thursday, but what I'm seeing lately leaves me with a very bitter taste.

 

Here one example:

 

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The fact is that the referendum is not legally binding. It can be ignored or taken to a parliamentary vote to change the outcome. There has been a history of narrow votes being ignored or having been made to vote again. For example:

 

Denmark - 1992 - Maastrict Treaty - 51.7%: Result - Second referendum held

 

Ireland - 2001 - Nice Treaty - 53.9%: Result - Second referendum held

 

France - 2005 - EU Constitution - 54.9%: Result - Ignored

 

Netherlands - 2005 - EU Constitution - 61.5%: Result - Ignored

 

Ireland - 2008 - Lisbon Treaty - 53.%: Result - Second referendum held

 

Greece - 2015 - Euro bailout - 61.3%: Result - Ignored

 

My personal view on this is that now certain campaign promises have been exposed as lies, it makes sense to go through this one more time... and I am sure that the result will be different. If not, then fair enough.

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The problem is the EU is corrupt and has never published its accounts on the numerous times it has been asked - and if we were to stay (let us imagine the government doesn't support the referendum) then we'd have to ensure much stronger control over how our money is used. This is one of the few strong arguments I do agree with - I don't mind being part of the EU but I want to know what my money is being used for.

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My personal view on this is that now certain campaign promises have been exposed as lies, it makes sense to go through this one more time... and I am sure that the result will be different. If not, then fair enough.

 

My personal view is totally the opposite

 

If a second referendum was to be held, democracy will be cast as dead in the uk, regardless of the result

 

You don't just change things to suit the political and financial elite

 

Before folk have a go, my view would be the same if remain had won and pressure was coming from the other side

 

Rob

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Absolutely, all the 'sour grapes' levelled at Remain people by Leavers you can be damn sure boot on other foot would have been just as bad.

 

Referendums are not constitutionally binding, but its bad form to ignore them. The issue for me as said above is that it was so marginal, that you are not really going with the will of the people in either way.

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I agree we shouldn't vote again, but, if we do vote like this again on another subject we shouldn't be making a constitutional decision based on a swing of 1.8% when 30% of the populous didn't vote at all.

 

This was something the government should have thought about before declaring the referendum. From memory, I believe the first referendum on setting up the Scottish assembly in 1979 was actually won by The Yes vote with around 51% but didn't reach the required 40% of all registered voters. If similar rules had been applied the leave camp would have lost.

 

Pete

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My personal view on this is that now certain campaign promises have been exposed as lies, it makes sense to go through this one more time... and I am sure that the result will be different. If not, then fair enough.

 

My personal view is totally the opposite

 

If a second referendum was to be held, democracy will be cast as dead in the uk, regardless of the result

 

You don't just change things to suit the political and financial elite

 

Before folk have a go, my view would be the same if remain had won and pressure was coming from the other side

 

Rob

 

I can understand that you are fully entitled to your opinion and personal view Rob. The reason for my statement is that the winning margin was so narrow, and post-result we find out that 3 of the main campaign promises were lies. It seems to me that the result does not truly reflect the views of the people given these revelations.

 

If I was a politician, promised everyone £10,000 each if I won and then retracted this after winning, how do you think people would feel? Cheated. I understand that this is a relatively remedial and simple example, but for a lot of leave voters, the £350 million a week to the NHS was a significant factor in the way they voted.

 

Furthermore, Farage even said that if Remain won by a small margin, he would push for a second referendum... now he has actually won by a small margin, he says "it's not best of 3". Hypocrite.

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There will be a second referendum.

 

Yes, it's possible, very possible that a referendum will be held on the terms of the agreement reached in a couple of years time, if the government of the time feel that it's important enough. Truth is, until we actually leave the EU anything could happen.

 

Pete

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As to Petes point, a referendum on the deal on the table, to get to that point we have to enact article 50, if we vote No to the deal in 2 years time, can we then put everything back in place?

 

Worth following the Times CEO Summit that is on right now, lots of influential people talking about exit. Sobering stat from minister trade and investment:

 

Number of trade negotiators

EU=550

US=500

UK=12

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If the unions in Germany get whiff of any job losses from their industries due to trade barriers with the UK, then I believe Merkel will have trouble ahead if she doesn't listen to German business and unions calling for free trade reassurances.

 

There are games afoot here whereby the pro European politicians don't wish to look weak on their commitment to the EU, but they know full well that without free trade with the UK, their own industries will suffer.

 

In the wake of the VW emissions scandal, all they need now is "x thousand of German workers at VW plants to be made redundant because Merkel won't agree free trade with UK". It's a very high stakes game of who blinks first imho.

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EU will enter into free trade with the UK, can't imagine they wont, but we will pay for it. We will be subject to all the EU regulation everyone else is plus freedom of movement of labour. All the things which the majority of Leave voters voted, what they believed, against.

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As to Petes point, a referendum on the deal on the table, to get to that point we have to enact article 50, if we vote No to the deal in 2 years time, can we then put everything back in place?

 

Worth following the Times CEO Summit that is on right now, lots of influential people talking about exit. Sobering stat from minister trade and investment:

 

Number of trade negotiators

EU=550

US=500

UK=12

 

And there's 40 years of trade, environemnt, & safety regulation to scrap and rewrite not to mention employment and employer rights, crininal and civil statutes.,

 

What an almighty mess.

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As to Petes point, a referendum on the deal on the table, to get to that point we have to enact article 50, if we vote No to the deal in 2 years time, can we then put everything back in place?

 

Worth following the Times CEO Summit that is on right now, lots of influential people talking about exit. Sobering stat from minister trade and investment:

 

Number of trade negotiators

EU=550

US=500

UK=12

 

And there's 40 years of trade, environemnt, & safety regulation to scrap and rewrite not to mention employment and employer rights, crininal and civil statutes.,

 

What an almighty mess.

 

Probably be a good time to be a contractor specialising in that sort of area. You`d have 2 years (or more) of work lined up at £2000 a day or whatever day rate you could command.

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Yes, lots of money to be made and someone no doubt already very rich out of it all or should I say richer?

 

Col can you add a poll asking how many regret their choice to leave?

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There will be a second referendum.

 

I honestly hope not. The table showing all ignored/accepted/re-voted referendums in the past seems to be bandied about as a hope that Brexit might not happen, however that same table was one of my reasons for wanting to vote leave! The EU isn't democratic, just looking at the EU constitution where France & Holland voted against it, so they reworded it and called it the Lisbon treaty which Ireland voted against... and the EU forced it through anyway forcing Ireland to have a second vote after they were awarded loads of money from the EU. If Brexit goes to a second referendum then it simply proves the point that democracy in the EU is dead and I'll want out on that point even more.

 

 

Sobering stat from minister trade and investment:

 

Number of trade negotiators

EU=550

US=500

UK=12

 

I'm surprised we currently have 12, most of the trade agreements are either between the EU and someone else or the terms we can agree to are limited by the EU... back to the Kenyan coffee discussion. At least we've just found another X00 jobs. ;)

 

 

I agree we shouldn't vote again, but, if we do vote like this again on another subject we shouldn't be making a constitutional decision based on a swing of 1.8%

 

1.8%? It was 51.9% vs 48.1%... so 3.8%? Unless you're referring to a swing between the expected and actual results or something that I missed?

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